Many traders took October 2025’s price action as confirmation that Bitcoin’s current cycle had already peaked. But a technical read shared by analyst CryptoAmsterdam suggests the story may not be over — and that a far bigger leg up could still be coming.
What the analyst sees
CryptoAmsterdam argues Bitcoin is mid-correction inside a larger, unfinished bull cycle rather than at the end of one. He frames the market using a five-stage cycle that has repeated across past Bitcoin rallies:
- Stage 1: initial bull phase
- Stage 2: bear phase
- Stage 3: accumulation below the macro range
- Stage 4: disbelief rally back into range
- Stage 5: parabolic move to new all-time highs
That sequence played out in 2013, 2017 and 2021, with each trough-to-peak cycle lasting roughly 1,456–1,477 days and Stage 5 producing the most explosive gains. In CryptoAmsterdam’s charts, the current cycle has produced the peak but not the characteristic parabolic Stage 5 expansion — implying the macro structure may still be open.
A mini-cycle inside a macro cycle
The analyst’s charts compare Bitcoin’s weekly price path against prior cycles and show the recent weakness could be a “mini-cycle” correction (Stage 3 of a smaller cycle) nested inside the larger macro Stage 5. In other words, short-term price softness does not necessarily negate a longer-term bullish thesis.
He bolsters this interpretation with analogies to other assets, notably gold and Alphabet (Google). Both showed mid-cycle pullbacks inside longer uptrends before resuming powerful rallies — a pattern Bitcoin might be mirroring now.
Why Bitcoin could still lag then surge
CryptoAmsterdam also highlights that Bitcoin has a history of lagging other assets. Large-cap stocks and gold have sometimes completed their structural moves before Bitcoin did, with delays measured in hundreds of days. For example, gold tended to bottom ahead of Bitcoin in the previous cycle; Bitcoin undertook its own mini-cycle correction while gold climbed, and only after gold topped did Bitcoin deliver a vertical move.
If history and the nested-cycle view repeat, Bitcoin could still enter the missing Stage 5 parabolic phase. The analyst projects that such a move could push prices to macro-cycle highs above $200,000.
Takeaway and caveats
The thesis is chart-driven and explicitly interpretive: it depends on reading nested cycles and cross-asset timing rather than a single definitive signal. If CryptoAmsterdam is right, October’s peak was not the end but the midpoint of a larger bull run, and the steepest gains may be ahead. As always, technical scenarios are probabilistic — not guarantees — and risk management remains essential.
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