Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in a fresh wave of cash this week — $53 million in a single day — pushing total monthly inflows past $1.16 billion. That marks a sharp reversal after four straight months of outflows that had drained more than $6 billion from the same funds, and analysts see it as evidence that investors are tentatively stepping back into Bitcoin after a prolonged selloff.
Price and technicals
Bitcoin was trading around $70,850 as of Saturday, comfortably above the lows seen earlier this year. Key technical indicators have turned more bullish: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed from an extreme low of 15 in January to about 56, and the Supertrend indicator has flipped from bearish to bullish on the daily chart. On shorter-term indicators, the Percentage Price Oscillator is approaching a bullish crossover of the zero line — a momentum signal many traders watch.
Prediction markets and upside odds
Sentiment in prediction markets has firmed as well. Kalshi now puts the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before January 2027 at 40% — its highest reading since February — while Polymarket shows odds around 50%. Reaching that six-figure target from current levels would require roughly a 35% gain.
Macro backdrop and the safe-haven case
Part of the bullish narrative is geopolitical. Tensions involving Iran, the U.S. and Israel have pushed oil above $100 a barrel at times, stoking inflation concerns and raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve will ease rates this year. Against that backdrop, some investors have been exiting gold and stock-market ETFs while allocating into Bitcoin, a pattern being cited as evidence that crypto is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven or inflation hedge by some market participants.
News flow and market reaction
That narrative shifted marginally on Friday after a cooler-than-expected PCE inflation reading and a modest pullback in oil prices. The decline in oil followed reports the U.S. waived certain sanctions, letting some companies purchase Russian oil — a development that eased an immediate supply-driven price spike. Bitcoin rose on the lighter inflation data.
Key technical levels to watch
On the charts, Bitcoin is fighting to reclaim its 50-day exponential moving average as support rather than resistance. The next near-term test for bulls is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 heading into next week. If buying pressure persists, the psychological milestones at $80,000 and $90,000 are the next hurdles on a path toward a possible six-figure print — a scenario prediction markets are increasingly taking seriously, even if a year-end arrival remains uncertain.
(Chart: TradingView; featured image: Unsplash)
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