Crypto markets remain on edge as Bitcoin and Ethereum fail to attract bargain hunters, according to crypto analyst BitQuant — and the reasons go beyond simple price levels.
Why buyers are staying sidelined
In a post on X, BitQuant argued that buyers are largely holding back because geopolitical risk has spooked the market. Reports that the U.S. might take military action against Iran have left traders braced for a sharp sell-off — many expect Bitcoin could tumble toward $50,000 if hostilities break out. That prospect, he says, keeps buyers out of the market despite current lows; he singled out Michael Saylor’s well-known accumulation strategy as one of the few exceptions still buying at roughly $65,000.
BitQuant also warns investors aren’t factoring in a key nuance: Bitcoin previously slid from about $90,000 to $60,000 without any headline-driving event, suggesting prices can fall for reasons beyond immediate news. In other words, the selling could continue whether or not a conflict with Iran happens.
Long-term view remains constructive
Still, BitQuant stresses that short-term price action is not the whole story. He argues many market participants treat BTC like a scoreline in a football match — cheering when it spikes and abandoning ship when it doesn’t — rather than recognizing Bitcoin as an evolving system. From that systemic perspective, he believes Bitcoin, and potentially Ethereum, are likely to trade higher over the long run.
Macro and policy pressures
The market’s downside isn’t only about geopolitics. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy also weighs heavily: over the weekend, President Trump announced plans to raise the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court ruled against the previous tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). That policy shift has added another layer of macro risk for risk assets, including crypto.
CryptoQuant’s darker scenario: sub-$40,000 possible
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has warned a deeper retracement is possible. Its analysis points to Bitcoin potentially dropping below $40,000 — around $38,900 — which it identifies as long-term holders’ (LTHs) cost basis. Historically, CryptoQuant notes, bear markets have often seen BTC dip below this cost basis, triggering a final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of roughly 20%. Only after that cleansing phase, the firm says, has the market typically rebuilt the foundations needed for a durable trend reversal and eventual new highs for BTC and ETH.
Signs of fading buyer demand on exchanges
Supporting the bearish pressure, CryptoQuant highlights weak recovery signs in the Coinbase Premium Index — a short-term gauge of retail demand on the U.S. exchange. A 30-minute simple moving average briefly crossed above zero but failed to sustain momentum into the new week. CryptoQuant views that failure to maintain a premium as a potential contributor to recent downward price action.
What to watch next
- Geopolitical headlines (Iran) and U.S. trade policy developments (tariff changes).
- Bitcoin’s relationship to the long-term holders’ cost basis (~$38,900).
- Exchange flows and Coinbase premium readings for signs of renewed buyer demand.
Bottom line: Short-term volatility and headline risk are keeping buyers cautious, and on-chain data leaves room for a deeper correction. But analysts like BitQuant still point to a longer-term constructive outlook if the market weathers this washout.
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