Bitcoin ripped back above $60,000 on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to tip the central bank’s next move, prompting a relief rally across crypto markets.
Data from crypto.news showed BTC trading near $60,175 at the time of writing, up roughly 3% from an intraday low under $58,000. The bounce followed Warsh’s comments at an ECB Forum panel, where he refused to signal whether the Fed will tighten policy at the July FOMC meeting and reiterated a data-dependent approach rather than any pre-commitment on future rate moves.
Markets were already leaning toward no change in July: CME FedWatch assigns about a 70.6% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting. But uncertainty about the rest of the year remains. The Fed’s updated projections from the June meeting showed nine policymakers anticipated at least one rate hike before year-end — a view that has continued to influence investor positioning even after Warsh’s data-driven stance.
Warsh also said inflation expectations eased in the early weeks of the recent period despite geopolitical worries tied to the U.S.-Iran situation, and he reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. Traders, however, still price a meaningful chance of tightening later on: Polymarket puts the probability that the Fed raises rates by the end of 2026 at about 54%.
Higher borrowing costs have been a persistent headwind for risk assets, including crypto, because elevated rates tend to push investors toward cash and short-term fixed income rather than speculative assets like Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley has taken a relatively dovish stance, forecasting unchanged rates through the rest of the year, while warning rate hikes could return if inflation proves persistent or unemployment drops further.
Aside from monetary policy, supply-side pressure is also shadowing Bitcoin. Crypto.news previously reported the prospect that Strategy could sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin — a potential overhang contributing to selling pressure in the market.
Politics remain in the background as well. Before Warsh’s appointment, President Donald Trump had publicly pushed for lower rates. After the Fed’s June hold, Trump offered muted criticism and praised the new Fed chair, even though no timeline for rate cuts was provided.
What to watch next: incoming U.S. economic data that could shift the Fed’s outlook, any signals from policymakers on the timing of hikes, and corporate BTC supply dynamics — all factors likely to shape whether Bitcoin can hold above $60K or give back gains.
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