Ethereum slipped below its on-chain “realized price” for the first time in two years, pushing the token into a valuation range some analysts say has historically signaled major cycle lows.
On Thursday, crypto analyst Ali Martinez tweeted that ETH has entered a generational “Buy Zone,” pointing to the MVRV ratio — which compares market price to the average on-chain cost basis of holders — now sitting in the 0.8–1.0 band. Martinez highlighted past rebounds from that region, citing historic recoveries of roughly 150%, 5,390%, 130%, 280% and 250%, and argued the setup resembles prior long-term bottoms. His takeaway: “On-chain data suggests Ethereum is approaching a long-term bottom. For those with a 12–24 month horizon, the accumulation window is officially open!”
Glassnode flagged the signal in a more measured update on March 11. Their model showed a realized price of $2,058.04 and an MVRV of 0.93 — implying the average ETH holder was sitting on about a 7% unrealized loss when the market price was $1,917.86. In plain terms, an MVRV near or below 1.0 means spot price is converging with (or trading below) the aggregate cost basis on the chain, signaling that the euphoric premium of prior rallies has largely been unwound.
Why this matters: in strong bull phases MVRV expands as prices run well above holders’ cost basis, reflecting crowded profits and distribution risk. Sub-1.0 readings typically appear when conviction fades, sentiment weakens and marginal sellers have already been absorbed — conditions that, historically, have preceded durable recoveries. That said, analysts caution this is not a guaranteed bottom; price action can remain choppy even when on-chain metrics look favorable.
At press time, ETH had bounced back above its realized price and was trading around $2,139.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
