A federal appeals court has cleared the way for Nevada to seek emergency relief that could temporarily shut Kalshi’s prediction markets in the state.
What happened
- In March 2025 the Nevada Gaming Control Board issued a cease-and-desist to Kalshi ordering it to stop offering sports-related prediction contracts. Nevada later filed for a temporary restraining order (TRO) that, according to Kalshi, would bar the platform from offering all event contracts.
- Kalshi moved to shift the dispute into federal court and asked the Ninth Circuit for an administrative stay to prevent the state action from going forward while the federal case proceeds. On Thursday a Ninth Circuit panel denied that stay, meaning the matter can be remanded to Nevada state court and the TRO request may move forward there.
Why it matters
- Kalshi warned in its March 13 appeal that losing the stay would cause “imminent harm,” potentially forcing it to litigate the same jurisdictional question in up to four venues (Nevada state and federal courts and two separate federal appeals), risking inconsistent rulings. The company argued that such a result could produce conflicting outcomes—for example, a state court determination that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) does not preempt state gambling laws while a federal appeals court reaches the opposite conclusion.
- If Nevada obtains a TRO, gaming-law attorney Dan Wallach said it would likely force Kalshi out of Nevada for at least two weeks while a preliminary injunction hearing is scheduled—a decision that could arrive within days.
Bigger picture for prediction markets
- Kalshi is not alone: more than a dozen state-level actions are targeting prediction market providers, with state regulators asserting authority—at least over sports-related market products.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken the opposite position, arguing in federal filings that the agency has primary jurisdiction over prediction markets. The CFTC even filed an amicus brief in one of the federal cases and signed a memorandum of understanding with Major League Baseball around the same time MLB announced a partnership with Polymarket.
Bottom line
The Ninth Circuit’s denial of Kalshi’s administrative stay keeps Nevada’s path open to immediate state-level relief and raises the prospect of swift, disruptive enforcement in a key U.S. market. The dispute highlights a broader, unresolved clash between state gambling regulators and the CFTC over who controls prediction markets—a legal fight that could shape the industry’s regulatory future.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
