Geopolitical shockwaves and rising oil have pushed precious metals into a precarious position — and investors are watching closely for a decisive move.
What’s happening
- Gold and silver have underperformed recently as war risks, surging oil prices and renewed inflation concerns weigh on markets.
- Traders have adopted a cautious stance, waiting to see whether metals will break out to new highs or slide to fresh lows.
Rashad Hajiyev’s take
Analyst Rashad Hajiyev says precious metals are at a “moment of truth.” He argues that the delay of the planned April 1, 2026 meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, and the prospect of continued U.S. military operations around Iran, could keep oil prices elevated and push inflation higher — conditions that typically benefit gold and silver.
According to Hajiyev:
- Gold and silver have been rangebound around roughly $5,000 and $80 respectively in recent sessions (his quoted levels), but a directional decision is imminent.
- If inflationary pressure persists, precious metals could rally — Hajiyev pegs silver’s upside at $140–$150 and gold at $5,800–$6,000.
- He also points to the gold-to-silver ratio (GTS) “bear flagging.” If that pattern breaks down, GTS could move toward the 40 level, which would favor silver’s outperformance relative to gold.
Why it matters for markets (and crypto)
A sustained spike in oil and inflation tends to push capital toward inflation hedges such as gold and silver. For crypto markets, the same macro narrative — higher inflation and risk aversion — can influence flows into or out of Bitcoin and other digital assets as investors reassess hedging strategies and safe-haven allocations.
Bottom line
Precious metals are at a critical inflection point, according to Hajiyev. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and oil-driven inflation are the key catalysts to watch; they will likely determine whether gold and silver stage a major rally or slump further.
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