Bitcoin’s recent rebound has reignited optimism, but one respected analyst warns the rally may be nothing more than another bear-market relief spike rather than a true turnaround.
In an X post on March 17, crypto analyst Ardi argued that traders risking the assumption that any breakout — including the recent move above $75,000 — marks the end of a bear market are jumping the gun. He says the current macro structure still looks like a classic downtrend, where sharp rallies often form “macro lower highs” and set the stage for the next leg down.
Ardi points to history for backup. After Bitcoin’s 2017 and 2021 highs, both subsequent bear markets produced several strong but short-lived relief rallies. In 2022, for example, the market saw pronounced spikes in January, April, June, August and November — roughly five bounces — each followed by renewed selling that pushed price lower. Those patterns, he argues, show that brief strength doesn’t equal a sustained reversal.
A few other takeaways from Ardi’s thread:
- This is Bitcoin’s first meaningful bounce in five months, so a reaction is not unexpected.
- Many traders have already abandoned bearish positions after just one green run — a sign, he says, of an underdeveloped trading thesis rather than conviction.
- He rejects the idea that the four-year halving cycle alone dictates market behavior, stressing that market structure and time-based patterns matter more.
Ardi also laid out concrete technical tests he’d want to see before calling a bottom and a bullish regime change: Bitcoin needs to reclaim $85,000, and then push past $96,000 by more than 3%. If neither threshold is cleared, he argues, there isn’t sufficient evidence of a durable uptrend.
Bottom line: short-term strength has returned, but history and price structure suggest traders should be cautious. Unless Bitcoin clears the specific levels Ardi cites, this rebound may simply be another relief rally inside a broader bear market.
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