Bitcoin is testing the $63,000 area as profit-taking from long-term holders and a broader aversion to risk weigh on the market.
Price picture
- Bitcoin was trading around $63,020 on Friday, down about 1.7% on the day and roughly 50% below its October all-time high of $126,080, per CoinGecko.
- The token failed to hold $65,000 midweek and plunged to an intraday low of $62,640 after breaking below a concentrated "$64,500 put wall" tied to options expiry — a cluster of put open interest that had been acting as short-term support, according to Tim Sun, senior researcher at Hashkey speaking to Decrypt.
Macro tilt and institutional flows
- Market watchers say the move is less about crypto fundamentals and more about a pullback in risk appetite. Sun pointed to corrections in global stocks and rapid deleveraging in semiconductor and AI-related names as a drag that’s also trimming institutional exposure to Bitcoin.
- Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, echoed that view: the drop looks like broad risk aversion driven by macro factors — rate expectations, geopolitical uncertainty and shifting sentiment — rather than a crypto-specific shock. She noted the overnight weakness is sharper than the bigger-picture backdrop implies.
Spot selling, not leverage
- On-chain and derivatives data show the selling is concentrated in the spot market rather than being driven by leveraged positions. That reduces the likelihood of cascade liquidations but keeps downward pressure if coins keep flowing onto exchanges.
Long-term holders are the main sellers
- A striking on-chain signal: Glassnode reports that more than 65% of coins moving into exchanges are from long-term holders realizing losses. That pattern matches prior bear phases, when one-to-two-year holders dominated selling until they eventually exhausted supply.
- Sun added that investors in the one-to-two-year holding band are “gradually accepting losses and exiting,” capping the recovery even after an upbeat U.S. inflation print. Glassnode’s Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges metric breaks down which cohorts are sending coins to exchanges and shows this top-heavy selling dynamic.
ETF flows — a timid recovery
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown a small bounce after a large outflow: following a $425 million withdrawal on Monday, Farside Investors data show ETFs took in $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday. That marginal recovery wasn’t enough to reverse price pressure, though the funds have attracted roughly $51 billion since launching in 2024.
- Hathorn views the renewed inflows as a constructive signal that longer-term institutional demand may be slowly returning.
Are we near the end of the selling?
- There are early signs the heaviest selling could be easing. Sun said realized losses are starting to decline and liquidation intensity from long-term holders “may have begun to peak.” Glassnode, citing analyst CryptoVizart, noted bear markets typically don’t find durable footing until the one-to-two-year cohort stops dominating the sell-side.
- Absent a large external shock, Sun suggested the decline may be limited and that an environment of weakening selling pressure and uncrowded leverage could produce a “choppy bottom” rather than a sharp capitulation.
Bottom line
- For now, exchange inflows remain heavily skewed toward investors who bought near cycle highs, and that structural sell pressure is keeping Bitcoin’s rebound muted. If that flow eases, it could remove a major headwind — but until it does, volatility and fragile rallies are likely to persist.
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