Sen. Bernie Moreno put the CLARITY Act on a tight clock at an April 22 Washington event, declaring the bill must clear Congress by the end of May — or risk being shelved for years as midterm politics take over.
A hard deadline
Moreno told attendees, “I think we’re going to get it done by the end of May,” a line that briefly nudged Polymarket’s odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 38% to 46%. Despite that bump, prediction markets remain skeptical that the timeline will hold.
Banking opposition vs. industry compromise
Moreno dismissed objections from banking groups to the bill’s stablecoin yield compromise as “noise,” arguing banks should innovate rather than block change. That came amid organized pressure from groups such as the North Carolina Bankers Association, which urged members to call Sen. Thom Tillis’s office to demand changes to the negotiated stablecoin language. Major trade groups including the American Bankers Association have warned that allowing stablecoin rewards could pull as much as $6.6 trillion in deposits out of the banking system — a claim the White House Council of Economic Advisers directly contradicted, estimating the lending impact of a yield ban at just 0.02%. Separately, Treasury official Scott Bessent has warned that regulatory delays risk pushing digital asset innovation overseas to hubs like Dubai and Singapore.
A shrinking legislative window
The calendar intensifies the pressure. Congress breaks for Memorial Day recess on May 21, leaving fewer than four working weeks after Moreno’s April 22 remarks. Even if the Senate Banking Committee completes a timely markup, the bill still faces four consequential steps — any of which can delay or derail it:
- Surviving a 60-vote threshold on the Senate floor
- Reconciling differences between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committee versions
- Reconciling with the House’s July 2025 text
- Securing the president’s signature
Timing challenges and odds
Analysts emphasize how sequential bottlenecks and limited floor time compress the bill’s chances. Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn noted there are roughly 18 working weeks before the October midterm recess, meaning every idle week makes a 2026 passage increasingly unlikely without a Banking Committee clearance this month. Galaxy has put the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 around 50-50, and perhaps lower, citing “the sheer number of unresolved questions that must be settled in sequence under severe time pressure.”
Higher-stakes warnings
Sen. Cynthia Lummis has sounded a sterner alarm: miss this window and Congress may have to wait until at least 2030 for any fresh legislative restart on crypto policy. The Senate Banking Committee had not set a markup date as of publication.
Fallbacks and realism
Some in the industry suggest a lame-duck session after November could offer a last-ditch path if the May window closes, but Galaxy Research rates that scenario as low probability.
Bottom line: With procedural hurdles, vocal banking opposition, and only weeks of Senate time left before Memorial Day, the CLARITY Act faces an urgent, precarious sprint — and failure to clear the coming weeks could push comprehensive federal crypto legislation out of reach for years.
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