Bitcoin’s push past $70,000 has cheered traders, but some analysts warn the rally may be short-lived. On TradingView, analyst HAMED_AZ argued that Bitcoin remains in a structurally bearish setup and could see a much deeper correction before finding a lasting bottom.
Why the outlook remains bearish
- HAMED points to a descending channel visible on the daily chart. Despite the recent bounce, BTC has not escaped that downtrend and remains under pressure.
- A key development was the break below the $79,000 support level; that area has since flipped to resistance and has not been convincingly retested by the bulls.
- Crucially, this resistance zone sits near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, making it an important barrier that could determine the next major move.
What could happen next
- If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $79,000–$82,000 area and continues to correct, HAMED warns the market may face another rejection that could trigger a significant sell-off.
- The analyst estimates a potential 40% crash in such a scenario, which would push BTC under $50,000 and toward roughly $47,000 — a level he identifies as a possible bottom.
Hamed’s take: “If price reaches this zone and shows signs of rejection or weakening bullish momentum, the market may experience a bearish rejection, continuing the broader downtrend within the channel,” he wrote. “As long as price remains below the supply zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel, the dominant scenario favors a bearish continuation after a pullback into resistance.”
Bull case remains alive
- There is an alternative outcome: a decisive breakout above $82,000. HAMED notes that a sustained move above that level would push BTC toward the upper boundary of the descending channel and could set the stage for a trend reversal — returning control to the bulls.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s recent gains have not erased technical risks. Traders should watch the $79,000–$82,000 zone closely: a rejection there could precede a steep correction toward $47,000, while a clean break above $82,000 would improve the odds of a bullish turnaround.
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