Argentine judges have ordered a nationwide blockade of Polymarket, one of the largest crypto prediction markets, after the platform drew scrutiny for a controversial inflation prediction. A Buenos Aires court instructed the Ente Nacional de Comunicaciones (ENACOM) and local ISPs to block access, and ordered the app removed from Apple and Google stores. Local outlets say the restriction could even affect users who already have accounts.
The move was driven by Buenos Aires lottery regulators — Lotería de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires and the Cámara Argentina de Casinos y Bingos — which argue Polymarket is operating as an unlicensed online gambling site rather than a neutral prediction market. The case was brought by the City’s Special Prosecutor’s Office for Gambling (FEJA) and is being overseen by Judge Susana Parada. Officials note that the ban’s full implementation depends on ENACOM formally notifying ISPs, so the cut-off is expected to be gradual.
Tensions spiked after a suspicious trading episode in February: Polymarket odds shifted roughly 15 minutes before INDEC released official CPI figures, prompting allegations of insider trading and political connections influencing markets. The incident intensified media coverage, which dubbed the platform a “degen casino” and criticized its peso‑linked wagers on macro data, elections and political outcomes — reportedly offered without Argentine licensing, KYC or age checks.
Polymarket and prediction markets more broadly have been embraced by crypto traders as real-time tools to price political risk, inflation trajectories and macro events — sometimes anticipating official statistics. But regulators worldwide have pushed back. Colombia’s gaming regulator Coljuegos declared Polymarket illegal in September 2025 and ordered ISPs to block it, and earlier enforcement actions or probes have been reported in France, Taiwan and Singapore. U.S. authorities have also pressured the platform over concerns that it offers unregistered derivatives and resembles gambling.
Argentina’s blockade reflects a growing regulatory trend: authorities increasingly treat crypto prediction platforms as gambling first and market infrastructure second. That posture risks fragmenting liquidity and could drive trading into more permissive jurisdictions — or into less transparent venues, complicating oversight and market integrity.
For now, Polymarket’s availability in Argentina will hinge on ENACOM’s rollout of the ISP notifications and any legal appeals. The case underscores broader questions about how prediction markets should be regulated when they intersect with sensitive, market-moving official data.
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