Arthur Hayes names Hyperliquid his top “shitcoin” — and he’s betting big.
The former BitMEX CEO published an essay backing perpetuals-focused DEX Hyperliquid (HYPE) as his largest liquid “shitcoin” position, setting a base-case price target of $150 per HYPE by August 2026 — roughly a fivefold gain from the ~$30 level Hayes cited in his write-up. Hayes calls Hyperliquid “the dominant perp DEX” and “the largest revenue-generating project that isn’t a stablecoin,” highlighting a buyback-heavy tokenomics model in which 97% of revenue is used to repurchase HYPE from the market.
Why Hyperliquid?
- Revenue-first thesis: Hayes argues that in a choppy, derivatives-driven market the best-performing “shitcoins” are often exchanges, because they keep earning fees even when spot trading stalls. Hyperliquid’s fee-driven model and aggressive buybacks are central to his bullish case.
- Permissionless listings (HIP‑3): Hayes points out that permissionless perpetuals added in the last four months have grown to nearly 10% of Hyperliquid’s revenue, including perps on silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 — a sign of product expansion and new fee streams.
- Exchange quality metric: Hayes leans on the ADV/OI (average daily volume / open interest) ratio as an objective way to rank perp exchanges, saying Hyperliquid’s low ADV/OI indicates “the most real” volumes among the top five perp DEXs.
The numbers behind the $150 target
- Target: $150 per HYPE by August 2026.
- Assumptions: 30‑day annualized revenues climb to about $1.4 billion and Hyperliquid captures a modest ~3.97% market-share shift from centralized-exchange perps.
Hayes frames this as a base case contingent on continued revenue growth and the success of permissionless listings.
Market backdrop
Hayes pitches the trade against a fragile macro environment where derivatives and market structure increasingly shape crypto price action — a view echoed by recent institutional research noting the waning dominance of the classic four‑year BTC cycle. In spot markets at the time of reporting:
- Bitcoin ≈ $69,100 (+2.7% 24h)
- Ethereum ≈ $1,993 (24h range roughly $1,922–$2,016)
- Solana ≈ $81.7 (down from $83.2)
- Hyperliquid ≈ $34.2 (up ~13.2% on the session)
Hayes’ blunt summary: “If the macro is figgity fucked for a while, what can I buy? What is the highest quality project that has real users, paying real money, and giving that money back to token holders?” His answer: “Hyperliquid is the highest quality project in all of crypto across these metrics.” He also calls Maelstrom “hype men that monetize attention,” underscoring the attention-driven nature of many speculative plays.
Bottom line and caveats
Hayes’ thesis is straightforward and revenue-centric, but it depends on significant revenue expansion, market-share gains from CEX perps, and continued momentum from permissionless product listings. Those assumptions — and the broader macro environment — create execution risk. Whether Hyperliquid can hit the $150 target will hinge on real-world trading volumes, competitive dynamics among perp venues, and how sustainable the protocol’s buyback model proves to be.
(Article based on Hayes’ public essay and market data cited at time of reporting.)
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