Kalshi is quietly chasing a dramatic re-rating — the prediction-market platform is in talks to raise fresh capital at roughly a $40 billion valuation, the Financial Times reports, in a round that could close as soon as Q3. If completed, that would almost double the $22 billion price tag Kalshi fetched just weeks ago, when it raised $1 billion from backers including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue and Morgan Stanley.
The proposed jump caps a dizzying ascent: Kalshi was valued at about $5 billion in October 2025 and roughly $11 billion by December. Management has signaled that a public listing is on the radar too. CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC this week the company is “basically thinking about” an IPO, though he said it is not likely to happen this year. The Information has suggested a listing is unlikely before late 2027 or 2028.
The business metrics behind the hype are eye-catching. Kalshi says it reached an annualized trading volume of $178 billion by April 2026 — roughly 32x year-over-year growth — and its newer “perpetual” futures let traders take positions on crypto prices, putting the platform in more direct competition with traditional derivatives houses.
But Kalshi’s rapid expansion is unfolding amid an escalating regulatory and legal battle over who has authority to police prediction markets. Kalshi argues its event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction — a view the Trump-appointed agency has endorsed. States have pushed back, treating many markets, especially sports-related contracts, as unlicensed gambling.
Recent developments:
- CME Group has sued the CFTC over the agency’s approval of Kalshi’s perpetual futures, because those contracts compete with CME products.
- Several states have taken action: Arizona brought criminal charges in March; a Massachusetts judge barred Kalshi’s sports markets in January; Nevada has extended a statewide ban; and Kentucky sued Kalshi and rival Polymarket this month, accusing them of operating illegal sportsbooks.
- The CFTC responded by suing Kentucky to block enforcement — the ninth state it has taken to court over prediction-market disputes and the first suit targeting a Republican attorney general.
- Conflicting judicial signals have emerged: a Michigan federal judge ruled sports prediction markets are not swaps, and former SEC/CFTC chair Gary Gensler has filed a brief arguing similarly. With multiple courts issuing mixed rulings, the dispute increasingly appears headed for the Supreme Court.
Politics and personalities are part of the story. Former President Trump has called federal oversight of these markets “critically important,” and Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket.
For prospective investors, the legal outcome matters materially. Kentucky alleges 89% of Kalshi’s 2025 volume was sports-related — the kind of contracts several states want to prohibit — and the Financial Times reports that roughly two-thirds of bets on Kalshi lose money. Whether the CFTC’s jurisdictional stance survives court scrutiny will shape Kalshi’s path to further fundraises, a potential IPO, and the long-term economics of event-driven trading markets.
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