Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight trading range since late November, leaving the market rudderless and analysts split on what comes next. Some predict the consolidation will give way to a deeper downtrend as BTC struggles to clear critical resistance, while others see the sideways action as a base for a fresh rally once selling pressure eases. For now, uncertainty is the dominant theme.
Institutional on-chain flows are now taking center stage amid that indecision. On-chain analyst Darkfost flagged a sizeable move by Galaxy Digital — the crypto financial-services firm led by Mike Novogratz — that has traders watching closely. According to on-chain data, Galaxy shifted roughly 447 BTC (about $39 million) to centralized exchanges a few hours ago, and then moved an additional ~200 BTC shortly afterward. The initial transfers were routed to Bybit and Bitstamp, exchanges commonly used for spot and derivatives trading.
Why this matters
- Large transfers to exchanges are typically interpreted as potential selling or liquidity deployment rather than long-term custody, especially during periods of low conviction and compressed volatility.
- Galaxy hadn’t sent this scale of BTC to exchanges in nearly a month, suggesting relative inactivity through December and making the recent outbound flows a notable change in behavior.
- While such moves don’t guarantee imminent selling, institutional flows often presage changes in short-term liquidity — and in a range-bound market they can tip the balance.
Technical picture
- Price is trading near $87,300 after an earlier cycle peak above the $120,000 area.
- Bitcoin has lost the 50-day moving average (now acting as dynamic resistance) and is compressing between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
- The 200-day MA — sitting just below $90,000 — has repeatedly rejected rally attempts and is now a key supply pivot. As long as BTC stays below that level, upside momentum looks capped.
- On the downside, the $85,000–$86,000 zone has so far held as short-term support.
- Volume has faded compared with earlier impulsive moves, reinforcing the “waiting” posture of the market.
- A string of lower highs since October points to weakening bullish control, but the lack of a sharp breakdown below long-term averages suggests a controlled distribution rather than panic.
Bottom line
Galaxy Digital’s recent exchange-bound BTC transfers add a fresh layer of risk to an already uncertain market. Traders should watch institutional flows and the 200-day moving average closely: a decisive break above that MA could reopen bullish momentum, while a failure and a break below ~$85,000 would likely confirm a heavier downside phase.
Chart: TradingView.com.
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