Bitcoin is entering the final stretch of 2025 under an uncommon — and potentially consequential — setup. After printing a fresh all-time high in October (~$126,080), the market has pulled back enough that the year now risks finishing in the red, putting Bitcoin’s annual performance on track to close negative. That split between an October peak and a possible red yearly close is driving debate about whether the current cycle is broken or simply shifting phases.
What the yearly color actually means
Historically, Bitcoin’s long-term price rhythm has often shown runs of three consecutive green yearly candles followed by a red close. That template has led many traders to expect similar behavior this cycle. But crypto analyst CryptoBullet argues the color of a single yearly candle is being overemphasized. He says a red 2025 close would indicate the cycle has moved into a bear phase — not that the four-year cycle itself is broken. More important, he notes, is where cycle highs and lows are formed, not whether a specific post‑halving year ends green or red.
Why a red close could matter — and why it might look like a doji
CryptoBullet expects a red close for 2025 would likely produce a doji yearly candle — a technical pattern that signals indecision after a strong rally and often precedes trend reversals. That interpretation lines up with his view that Bitcoin’s cycle top was already printed in October when the market hit roughly $126,080. In past cycles, once a post‑halving high is made, price action typically shifts into a prolonged corrective phase regardless of the annual candle’s final color.
The 2019 analogy and what may come next
The analyst points to the post‑top behavior in 2019 as a precedent: Bitcoin spent months trading roughly 30% below its peak while altcoins bottomed and then began to recover. CryptoBullet sees a similar pattern unfolding now, but on a larger scale — noting that altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin for nearly four years. For context, Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,396 and has since moved well below its October peak, a structure he says mirrors post‑top consolidation from earlier cycles.
What he expects in 2026
Based on this setup, CryptoBullet forecasts a short-lived “dead cat bounce” in early 2026 with a brief rotation into altcoins, followed by a deeper correction as a bear market takes hold across Bitcoin. In short: a temporary relief rally might give altcoins some breathing room before the broader corrective phase continues.
Bottom line
A red yearly close in 2025 would likely mark a transition into a bear phase, according to CryptoBullet, but it wouldn’t necessarily invalidate the four‑year cycle framework. Traders and investors should watch where cycle highs and lows ultimately form, and monitor early‑2026 price action for signs of a bounce or a deeper correction. Source: CryptoBullet on X.
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