Crypto Crystal Ball 2026: Is Wall Street becoming crypto’s next antagonist?
After a year in which the crypto industry dramatically increased its political influence, 2026 may bring an unexpected cost: a wave of opposition from traditional finance.
Decrypt’s annual Crypto Crystal Ball looks at the trends likely to shape the year ahead. Having already assessed whether crypto can pass its market-structure bill, we now ask: could Wall Street be primed to turn on crypto?
What sparked the tension
In early December, Citadel Securities — the high-profile market maker founded by billionaire Ken Griffin — sent a blistering letter to the SEC. The firm urged regulators to rethink plans to grant broad “exemptive relief” to large swaths of the crypto industry, warning such moves could “override key investor protections.” Citadel also argued that much DeFi activity should fall squarely under securities regulation.
That salvo is raising alarms inside crypto. Amanda Tuminelli, executive director of the DeFi Education Fund, told a crypto policy event she expects litigation from TradFi players: “I do think we’re going back to court whether we want to or not,” she said. “I’m not just speculating. [The letter] makes it abundantly clear that Citadel is getting ready to sue.”
Other TradFi actors, including Nasdaq, have made similar appeals to the SEC to abandon plans for exemptions. Still, industry insiders point to recent wins: crypto’s political clout helped push provisions on stablecoin rewards through the GENIUS Act this summer despite banking-lobby opposition. Banking groups continue to agitate for retroactive changes, but the Trump administration has so far not shifted course.
Not all of Wall Street is united
Crucially, Wall Street isn’t a single bloc on crypto. Some big incumbents are increasingly embracing tokenization and blockchain tools as ways to cut costs — and, potentially, to find regulatory arbitrage. A crypto policy leader told Decrypt that “the perspectives of the Fidelitys of the world among TradFi players will start to be a little bit louder, and balance out those on the other side saying we’re an existential threat.”
What to expect in 2026
- Litigation risk: With firms like Citadel signaling readiness to sue, expect court challenges tied to any regulatory accommodations the SEC grants crypto firms.
- Regulatory fights at the agencies: The policy leader predicts tensions will peak during SEC and CFTC rulemaking next year — those processes could determine whether friction escalates or cools.
- Political maneuvering: Both industry and banking lobbies will keep pressing lawmakers and the White House on language like the GENIUS Act provisions.
- A split in TradFi: Some legacy institutions may push for tighter oversight, while others pursue blockchain adoption, creating a mixed set of allies and adversaries for crypto.
Bottom line
Crypto’s newfound political muscle has bought influence — but that visibility also paints a target on the industry’s back. 2026 may well be the year crypto tests whether it can coexist with, and even attract partners from, traditional finance — or whether it faces a concerted legal and regulatory push from powerful incumbents. Watch SEC/CFTC rulemaking and any high-profile litigation for the clearest signs of which path plays out.
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