Headline: CLARITY Act’s chances slump to record-low as Senate pauses debate ahead of August recess
Polymarket traders cut the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to a record-low 27% on July 29, reflecting growing skepticism after the Senate delayed action on the crypto market-structure bill. That price reflects market sentiment rather than an independent forecast, but it underscores how tight the bill’s legislative window has become. Galaxy Digital has likewise trimmed its odds to about 30%.
What happened: Senate Majority Leader John Thune postponed consideration of the CLARITY Act to focus on a Russia sanctions package and several federal nominees. The Senate voted on July 28 to advance the sanctions bill, shrinking the number of working days available before the chamber’s Aug. 8 recess. Industry groups have urged Thune to at least start the cloture process before the break—so a procedural vote could reveal whether the measure has enough bipartisan support to move later in the year.
Key negotiation flashpoints
- Ethics enforcement: Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan counteroffer that tweaks the bill’s ethics restrictions. The pair expect to submit the language to the White House within days. One significant change under discussion would let state attorneys general, not just the Department of Justice, enforce ethics provisions—an issue that’s become central because it governs elected officials’ financial interests in digital assets.
- Stablecoin rewards: Separately, disagreement over yield-bearing stablecoin products risks another delay. Banking groups want limits on products that could compete with traditional deposits, while crypto firms warn that broad restrictions would curtail consumer choice and innovation.
Why passage looks unlikely before recess
Even if negotiators settle ethics language, the CLARITY Act must clear procedural thresholds, pass the full Senate and then reconcile differences with the House version. Those additional steps make enactment before the August recess increasingly improbable.
What the CLARITY Act would do
The bill aims to split oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC, giving exchanges, token issuers and blockchain developers clearer rules for operating in the U.S. Supporters argue the framework would reduce regulatory uncertainty and keep investment and jobs stateside.
Political and industry backing
- Supporters include Florida Rep. Mike Haridopolos, who warned on July 28 that delays could drive capital and jobs to jurisdictions with clearer rules.
- Big-name financial firms — BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Charles Schwab and SoFi — have publicly backed the measure, countering narratives that Wall Street uniformly opposes it. “The Big Bank Lobby is trying to say that all of Wall Street is opposed to the Clarity Act. That’s completely false,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis said.
- The Consumer Technology Association has also warned that regulatory uncertainty could push capital and talent offshore.
Regulatory fallback: SEC action
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency stands ready to use rulemaking to address parts of the crypto market if Congress does not act. He described the SEC as “ready, willing and able” to write rules under existing authority, but emphasized that statutes are preferable because they create a more durable framework than rules a future administration could change. Agency rulemaking might clarify how certain tokens, trading venues and tokenized securities are treated, but it would not resolve the core jurisdictional split between the SEC and CFTC that legislation would.
Bottom line
The bipartisan ethics counteroffer is the bill’s immediate test—White House approval could keep talks alive after the recess. But with a compressed Senate calendar and unresolved stablecoin disputes, the CLARITY Act faces its weakest outlook yet heading into August.
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