SpaceX’s newly public shares hit a jolt of turbulence this week: SPCX plunged to an intraday low of $108.66 on Monday and closed at $113.50 — roughly 50% below June’s post-IPO peak of $225.64. The slide came despite a largely successful Starship test flight, leaving investors to ask whether this “all-time low” marks a buying opportunity or the start of something deeper. Shares recovered a bit on Tuesday, finishing at $116.41 (up 2.56%, or $2.91), after trading as high as $118.13.
Why the disconnect between launches and the stock?
- Operational wins didn’t help the stock: Starship’s 13th test flight lifted off Friday from Starbase, Texas, deployed all 20 Starlink V3 satellites and produced what observers called one of the softest ocean splashdowns yet — but the market still punished SPCX.
- Structural concerns loom larger than launch headlines. Investors are anxious about SpaceX’s pivot away from Falcon 9 — long the company’s reliable cash generator — toward Starship, which is capital intensive and still scaling. That strategic shift is central to the current selloff.
- Valuation pressures and heavy AI-related spending have added to uncertainty for 2026 forecasts. At the time of writing, SPCX is trading below its $135 IPO price, even as Wall Street’s 12-month average target remains broadly bullish at roughly $236.71.
What analysts are saying
- Dan Huot celebrated the milestone with a light touch: “I’m a little over the moon right now. Lucky number 13.”
- Alexander Morris, CEO of F/m Investments, summed up the mixed picture: “You’re going to see double digits in stock price, and that’s probably not a terrible thing. But long term, SpaceX doesn’t really have a natural competitor base. They have a good product with an intergalactic-sized moat… That said, there’s a lot of AI hooks shoved into that same package, and that’s where we’re seeing the volatility.”
- Mike Zaccardi, a top-ranked investor on TipRanks, sees parallels with other major IPOs: the market often sells off early and rewards patient holders later. He also notes that the upcoming lockup expirations are visible in investor calendars and may already be priced in.
What will decide the next leg?
Earnings, the lockup schedule, and how quickly Starship can ramp its flight cadence are the three factors most likely to shape SPCX’s 2026 outlook. Analysts say any meaningful recovery depends on the market’s confidence in SpaceX’s revenue transition from Falcon 9 to a Starship-dominated future.
Why crypto-watchers should care
SpaceX’s Starlink footprint and Starship’s potential to lower launch costs matter to the crypto and Web3 worlds. Satellite internet can improve node connectivity in remote regions, support decentralised applications beyond terrestrial infrastructure, and enable new satellite-based blockchain use cases. Those are potential medium- to long-term benefits rather than immediate drivers of SPCX’s share price, but they’re part of the broader ecosystem investors will be watching.
Bottom line
The stock’s drop to an all-time low is a clear warning signal, but Wall Street is divided on what comes next. A bounce or a sustained recovery could hinge less on individual successful flights and more on demonstrated revenue stability, capital allocation around Starship, and the cadence of upcoming corporate milestones. For traders and crypto-adjacent investors alike, the coming weeks’ earnings, lockup events, and launch schedule will likely dictate whether this is a buying window or the beginning of a longer downturn.
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