Pi Network (PI) showed modest gains on Friday after three sessions of sideways trading, a sign that selling pressure may be easing following the sharp correction earlier this month. While the token remains in a broader downtrend, a combination of rising derivatives activity and deeply oversold technical signals is feeding speculation that PI could mount a short-term bounce.
Speculation returns as sentiment slowly stabilizes
PI’s price is highly sentiment-driven given its community-focused nature. After the recent sell-off, market risk appetite has steadied, helping to restore some optimism. Sentiment could get an additional boost from the Stellar Protocol v25 mainnet upgrade set for July 22 — an event that may lift assets tied to Stellar-based infrastructure.
Derivatives activity points to renewed interest
Data from CoinAnk shows Open Interest (OI) in PI derivatives rose to $10.73 million on Friday from $10.44 million a day earlier, recovering from a low of $9.11 million on Monday. That steady OI rebound suggests traders — particularly retail participants — are gradually re-entering the market and positioning for a possible recovery, though conviction remains modest for now. Rising OI can amplify moves in either direction, so the trend deserves monitoring.
Technicals: deeply oversold but still in a downtrend
Technically, PI is still trading below the key $0.0800 resistance, so the medium-term outlook remains bearish. The token has found some footing near the lower boundary of a falling channel, where technical support lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $0.06793. Holding above this level would be critical for any relief rally.
Key indicator readings:
- RSI: around 17 — deep into oversold territory. Such extreme readings often signal stretched selling, but they don’t guarantee a reversal.
- MACD: still below zero but showing signs of weakening bearish momentum, which could indicate sellers are losing steam.
Upside and downside levels to watch
- Immediate resistance: 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $0.09613.
- Stronger cap: near $0.110 — the upper boundary of the falling channel and a tougher hurdle unless wider market sentiment improves.
- Critical support: 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $0.06793. A decisive break below this level could expose a much lower risk target at the 227.2% extension around $0.01463, markedly increasing downside risk.
Bottom line
PI’s deeply oversold technical profile, coupled with rising Open Interest and improving sentiment, sets the stage for a potential short-term recovery. However, the broader trend remains bearish until PI can reclaim key resistance levels above $0.0800 — and traders should watch OI and the July 22 Stellar upgrade for catalysts that could influence the next leg of the move.
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