Morgan Stanley leads a wave of Wall Street optimism around SpaceX as the company prepares to join the Nasdaq-100 — a move that could trigger billions in passive buying even as shares show short-term weakness.
What analysts are saying
- Morgan Stanley kicked off coverage with an Overweight rating. Analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 base-case target and a $600 bull-case target, citing the economics of Starship launches, the scaling of Starlink’s satellite network, and SpaceX’s role in building infrastructure for space-based AI.
- Goldman Sachs also initiated coverage with a Buy and a $205 price target. Analyst Eric Sheridan highlighted SpaceX’s positioning across space, connectivity and AI, calling each a potential “multiple trillion-dollar” market over the next 5+ years.
- Citigroup assigned a Buy with a $200 12-month target, and UBS and Wells Fargo likewise opened coverage with positive recommendations — adding institutional heft behind the newly listed company.
Why the Nasdaq-100 inclusion matters
SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 after qualifying under updated index rules that let certain large, newly listed companies enter the benchmark after just 15 trading days. JPMorgan estimates that ETFs and index funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 will need to buy roughly $4.3 billion of SpaceX stock to match the rebalanced index — buying expected around the July 6 close and July 7 open. SpaceX’s initial index weight is expected to be below 1%, meaning the inflows are automatic for passive funds regardless of their view on valuation.
Market reaction and derivatives
Despite the bullish analyst notes, SpaceX shares have pulled back from recent highs. The stock closed Monday down 0.98% at $160.42; by early Tuesday it extended losses about 5.3% to $151.90. Derivatives markets showed caution as well — SPCX USDC perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid traded roughly 3.15% lower at about $159.17, with around $284 million in volume at the time of reporting.
Crypto market context
Crypto markets moved in parallel to the SpaceX newsflow. Bitcoin remained above its 200-week moving average (roughly $62,865), trading near $63,300 after a 24-hour high around $64,597. Trading volume was more than 70% higher, amid commentary from Grayscale that recent institutional Bitcoin sales could be helping to establish a market bottom.
Bottom line
Wall Street’s early coverage frames SpaceX as a multi-front growth story—Starship, Starlink and space-based AI—while Nasdaq-100 inclusion could force meaningful passive demand. Short-term volatility and profit-taking, however, show investors are still digesting valuation and technical flows as both equity and crypto markets react.
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