Bitcoin’s rebound from the Feb. 6 low near $60,000 is showing early signs of structural improvement — but it still looks more like a bear-market rally than a confirmed breakout, CryptoQuant analyst Maartun said in an April 20 video.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin is trading near $75,088, about 24% above the Feb. 6 low, but that price move alone doesn’t prove a new sustainable uptrend.
- Long-term holders (LTHs) are accumulating: roughly 354,000 BTC added to their supply over the past 30 days, a shift Maartun calls “structural accumulation.”
- Large, tactical inflows also arrived: a Strategy vehicle raised roughly $2.66 billion in 48 hours (about $1.16B on April 13 and $1.56B on April 14).
- Offsetting demand, short-term holders (STHs) moved ~60,000 BTC to exchanges while SOPR remains below 1 — indicating many are selling at a loss.
- Whales (wallets holding >100 BTC) have increased exchange inflows, suggesting renewed distribution at current levels.
- Bitcoin is still below the short-term holder realized price, around $83,000 — a level Maartun identifies as a key pivot that tends to act as support in bull markets and resistance in weaker phases.
What it means
Maartun frames the situation as a question of market character rather than pure price action: is this the start of a durable trend or another rally that gets sold into? The growing LTH supply implies coins are being absorbed by participants less prone to sell into volatility, which strengthens the market’s underlying structure. As he put it, “That’s not a small number… Coins are being absorbed and taken out of active circulation.”
But the picture is mixed. The aggressive capital injection from strategic buyers might normally trigger a stronger advance; the muted response suggests meaningful supply is meeting that demand. Short-term holders exiting at a loss and whales sending more coins to exchanges are classic hallmarks of bear-market rallies, not clean trend continuation.
Where things go from here
Maartun’s conclusion is cautious: the internal structure is improving, but the rally hasn’t yet earned a clean breakout. If demand can continue to absorb supply and push Bitcoin back above the short-term holder realized price (~$83,000), the improving fundamentals could translate into a more durable uptrend. Until that happens, the market remains “fairly balanced but not yet bullish.”
At press time, BTC traded near $75,088.
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