A technical signal that has flagged every major Bitcoin bottom just lit up again — and it’s happening as gold posts its strongest year since 1979.
What triggered it
On Dec. 16, gold surged to $4,305 per ounce (just shy of a $4,381 peak from two months earlier) and was trading around $4,282.16 at press time. The metal has jumped roughly 62% in 2025, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, central bank buying and heavy ETF inflows.
Against that backdrop, Bitcoin struggled. After a sharp sell-off on Dec. 15 that sparked about $200 million in long liquidations over an hour, BTC was trading near $86,000 — roughly 30% below its October peak of $126,210. That weakness amid gold’s run has put a spotlight on a little-noticed ratio: Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) versus gold.
Why the metric matters
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe flagged that the BTC-to-gold RSI has just slipped below 30 for only the fourth time in Bitcoin history — previous occurrences coincided with the 2015, 2018 and 2022 Bitcoin bottoms. Historically, van de Poppe argues, such deep divergences have preceded capital rotation back into Bitcoin rather than long-term structural weakness. He also pointed to Bitcoin’s “massive” deviation from its 20-week moving average, a condition that has often foreshadowed trend reversals.
What analysts are saying
Some market voices see gold’s surge as a headwind for Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, told AMBCrypto that growing interest in safe havens could be bearish for BTC if inflation worries look more entrenched. He said Bitcoin needs a decisive breakout above $94,000 to restore confidence, while a drop below $80,000 could force liquidations and raise the specter of another crypto winter.
Others read the current split between gold and Bitcoin as temporary dislocation. Martin Pelletier described the pair as “one hell of a pair trade,” suggesting gold may be overextended and ripe to “play catch up” to BTC. On-chain analysis from Chain Mind also pointed to metrics that support the case for a strong Bitcoin advance relative to gold.
Market context and rankings
Bitcoin’s recent rally — which earlier in the year reclaimed its priorall-time high — pushed its market capitalization to about $1.75 trillion and briefly moved BTC above silver in global asset rankings. Infinite Market Cap data on Dec. 16, however, showed silver holding higher positions while Bitcoin ranked eighth.
Macro risks to watch
Analysts say the next major moves for both assets will hinge on central-bank policy. VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani highlighted the Bank of Japan meeting on Dec. 19 as potentially pivotal, given an ongoing mix of Fed “quasi‑QE” liquidity and possible BOJ tightening. How these forces evolve into 2026 will shape liquidity flows between gold, Bitcoin and other scarce assets.
Outlook
Despite near-term volatility, many analysts remain cautiously bullish on Bitcoin’s medium-term prospects. Factors cited include growing liquidity, a decline in long-term holder selling, and steady institutional ETF positions — conditions that could set the stage for a renewed BTC breakout if macro policy stabilizes and liquidity keeps building into early 2026.
Note: This story summarizes market commentary and analysis from AMBCrypto sources. It is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice; trading cryptocurrencies carries high risk and readers should do their own research. © 2025 AMBCrypto
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