The crypto honeymoon appears to be over — at least for now. After a strong run in 2024, trading cooled sharply in early 2026, and Wall Street analysts are hurriedly trimming forecasts ahead of upcoming earnings reports. New research from Barclays and Oppenheimer, among others, shows a consistent story: trading volumes have weakened, token prices slid, and earlier revenue assumptions look increasingly optimistic.
Barclays took the most direct action, downgrading Coinbase (COIN) and warning that “global crypto trading activity has declined to a level not seen since the end of 2023.” The bank noted that March was Coinbase’s weakest month for trading volume since September 2024, April showed “no signs of improvement,” and it estimates Q1 volumes fell roughly 30% from the prior quarter. Barclays added that, absent a near-term resurgence in trading, profitability at Coinbase is likely to be under pressure — and its adjusted EBITDA forecast sits about 24% below the Street.
The mechanics are simple: exchanges earn most of their revenue from transaction fees. When markets quiet and retail traders pull back, weekly traders stop trading and millions of accounts reduce activity, producing sharp drops in volumes and revenue.
Token prices haven’t helped. Major cryptocurrencies pulled back in the first quarter: Bitcoin lost more than 22% and ether fell about 29% quarter-over-quarter. Those declines depressed trading activity and forced analysts to reset models.
Oppenheimer reached similar conclusions but was somewhat less bearish on Coinbase. It cut its Q1 volume estimate to $211 billion from $244 billion and now projects total revenue of $1.48 billion — below prior forecasts and consensus — while noting many Wall Street estimates had not yet fully baked in the fall in volumes.
The reset isn’t limited to Coinbase. Circle (CRCL) is still expanding the USDC stablecoin network — Oppenheimer notes USDC market cap rose ~1% quarter-over-quarter and USDC transfer volume climbed about 12% — but Compass Point recently downgraded CRCL to “sell.” Bullish (BLSH), owner of CoinDesk, saw a spike in on-platform activity during February’s volatility but missed spot-volume expectations; Rosenblatt downgraded BLSH this week to “neutral.”
Executives are pushing diversification to soften the hit from spot trading. Coinbase’s “everything exchange” strategy targets derivatives, tokenized assets and new markets, but Barclays warned those moves are likely to take a long time to pay off and sees “little ‘right to win’ in new asset classes like equities.” Stablecoins — often viewed as steadier revenue drivers — face their own headwinds: regulatory debate in Washington leaves the status of stablecoin rewards uncertain. Still, Oppenheimer notes that new use cases, such as prediction markets, could support near-term USDC growth.
The broader takeaway: analysts are moving preemptively. With earnings season approaching, firms are lowering estimates now rather than risk being surprised by weak results later.
What to watch next
- Earnings dates: Bullish reports on April 23; Coinbase reports second-quarter earnings on May 7; Circle has not announced a date.
- Key metrics: exchange trading volumes, retail activity, adjusted EBITDA versus Street estimates, and any updates on derivatives/tokenized asset revenue.
- Macro and policy risks: token price trends and U.S. stablecoin regulatory developments.
Bottom line: the industry’s chief revenue engine — transaction fees from spot trading — has cooled, and while diversification and stablecoin growth offer paths forward, they’re unlikely to replace lost spot-trading revenue quickly. Analysts are resetting expectations accordingly.
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