Headline: Signs of Seller Exhaustion as Bitcoin Realized Losses Drop Toward $400M/Day
Bitcoin may be nearing a phase of seller exhaustion, according to on-chain data from CheckonChain and Glassnode. After dipping to about $60,000 on Feb. 5, BTC has spent the last two months consolidating and slowly grinding up toward the $70,000 area—even as macro uncertainty from the Middle East conflict pushed oil above $100 a barrel.
Key on-chain takeaways
- CheckonChain reports realized losses have fallen to roughly $400 million per day and are trending lower. While still elevated versus historical norms, this is a material downshift from spikes near $2 billion on Nov. 21 and Feb. 5—levels that exceeded those seen in the 2022 bear market. “Spot markets are shifting from aggressive selling to net buy side pressure, realized profits and losses are both declining,” CheckonChain said.
- Glassnode’s seven‑day moving average shows realized profits at about $300 million per day—near twelve‑month lows—suggesting investors who accumulated around $60,000 are now marginally profitable and beginning to take gains.
- The realized profit-to-loss ratio has climbed to 1.4, its highest reading since January, meaning realized profits now outweigh realized losses.
What this means
Declining realized losses and a rising profit-to-loss ratio indicate that selling pressure is easing. Together, these signals point to a market where forced or panicked selling may be waning—and the odds of a seller exhaustion phase, which can precede price strength, are increasing.
Caveats
Realized losses remain higher than in prior years, and geopolitical or macro shocks could quickly change market dynamics. On-chain indicators are informative but not definitive price predictors.
Bottom line: On-chain metrics suggest sellers are thinning out, but investors should weigh continued macro risk before assuming a sustained bullish breakout.
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