Headline: VanEck: Miner “Capitulation” Is a Contrarian Buy Signal — Bitcoin Momentum Often Follows Hashrate Drops
VanEck is pushing back on a common market narrative: falling bitcoin mining activity isn’t necessarily a sign of long-term network breakdown — it can be a bullish, contrarian indicator for price.
Here’s what the asset manager highlights and why it matters now
- Current backdrop: Bitcoin is trading around $87,000 after a roughly 36% peak-to-trough drop from October’s all-time high. Over the past 30 days the network’s hashrate recorded its steepest decline since April 2024.
- Why hashpower fell: Miners have had compressed margins from the weaker BTC price and the recent halving — the four-year event that cut block rewards by 50% and reduced new issuance. That pressure forces higher-cost or highly leveraged operators to power down or sell, producing what VanEck calls miner capitulation.
- The counterintuitive outcome: VanEck notes hashrate declines tend to lag price falls. As the weakest miners exit, network difficulty adjusts downward, making mining easier and restoring profitability for the remaining operators. That reduces forced selling and can support a price rebound.
- Historical evidence: When 90-day hashrate growth was negative, bitcoin produced positive 180-day forward returns 77% of the time. VanEck estimates buying during sustained hashrate corrections has improved 180-day forward returns by roughly 2,400 basis points compared with periods of rising hashrate.
- Current correction is selective: The firm says shutdowns are concentrated among higher-cost or geopolitically exposed operations, not across the board — consistent with a culling of marginal players rather than systemic network failure.
What this means for traders and investors
VanEck frames miner capitulation as a durable contrarian signal: declining hashrate often appears closer to cyclical bottoms than tops, and the forced reduction in supply-side selling helps set the stage for renewed bitcoin momentum. That doesn’t guarantee a rally, but the historical pattern gives a tactical signal for investors watching the post-halving landscape.
(As always, past performance is not a guarantee of future results — these historical tendencies are one factor among many to consider when assessing market outlooks.)
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
