Hashrate dip sparks cautious optimism for Bitcoin — historical pattern favors bulls
Bitcoin’s network hashrate dropped about 4% over the month ending Dec. 15, a move that’s drawing attention because past declines in mining power have often preceded price recoveries. Analysts at VanEck — Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush — say traders are watching the metric as a contrarian indicator: when hashrate fell over the prior 30 days, Bitcoin’s 90‑day forward returns were positive 65% of the time, versus 54% when hashrate rose.
Longer windows look even better for bulls, the analysts note. Periods of contracted hashrate followed by sustained low levels were often followed by bigger recoveries: negative 90‑day hashrate growth preceded positive 180‑day Bitcoin returns 77% of the time, with an average gain of 72%. Those historical relationships aren’t guarantees, but they’re compelling enough that market participants are factoring them into decisions.
Miner economics are amplifying the story. VanEck points out that the break‑even electricity cost for a 2022‑era Bitmain S19 XP fell roughly 36% — from $0.12 per kWh in early December to about $0.077/kWh by mid‑December — squeezing margins and prompting marginal operators to power down or sell rigs. VanEck ties the recent 4% hashrate decline to an estimated shutdown of roughly 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China.
Two other structural trends could further trim Bitcoin mining capacity: rising demand for AI compute (which may pull hardware and power toward AI workloads) and continued geographic reshuffling. VanEck estimates AI demand could ultimately remove as much as 10% of the network’s hashrate. That would redistribute mining activity and likely concentrate operations where electricity costs and supportive regulations align. At the same time, mining still has official backing in many places — up to 13 countries reportedly support mining activity, including Russia, Japan, France, El Salvador, Bhutan, Iran, the UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, and Kenya.
Price context and cross‑asset moves
Bitcoin is trading near $88,600 — roughly 30% below its Oct. 6 all‑time high of $126,080. End‑of‑year markets have been quiet and liquidity thin, which can mute or disguise momentum. Coverage recently tracked BTC around the high‑$80Ks, range‑bound as traders weigh supply and demand signals.
Other markets matter, too. Gold climbed above $4,400/oz and silver reached $69.44/oz in recent trading — moves some investors interpret as part of a broader safe‑haven bid that can influence crypto flows.
What it means for investors
The combination of miner capitulation and historical hashrate–price patterns points to cautious optimism, VanEck says. The typical sequence — weaker miners exit, mining difficulty adjusts downward, and remaining operators face less immediate selling pressure — can reduce downside supply and help set the stage for price stabilization and gains over subsequent months.
Caveat: these are historical tendencies, not certainties. Hashrate swings interact with macro factors, liquidity conditions, and shifting capital flows (including from AI computing demand), so traders and investors should view the data as one input among many. Sources: VanEck analysis, TradingView.
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