Solana is sending mixed signals as its price compresses beneath a key resistance band, with technicians warning that momentum may be fraying even as bullish structure remains intact.
What’s happening
- SOL has been repeatedly rejected in the $92–$95 range but hasn’t broken down, a resilience that keeps the uptrend intact, according to analyst Marcus Corvinus. An ascending trendline has been guiding higher lows, with buyers stepping in earlier on dips and slowly squeezing price into resistance.
- That compression has created a classic “squeeze” setup: a decisive breakout above $95 — sustained — could ignite a fast move toward $100–$105. Conversely, a loss of the ascending trendline could trigger a sharper drop into the $78–$75 demand zone.
A rare divergence flashes warning
- Analyst Umair Crypto flagged an unusual divergence between pairs: the RSI on the USDT pair is already fading while the BTC pair still shows relative strength. Typically the BTC pair leads with weakness, so the USDT pair weakening first suggests momentum could be deteriorating faster than relative metrics imply.
- Price recently rallied toward $97 and is now retesting the 50 SMA, but that move lacked strong volume. A push to $101 remains possible — and could even create a bearish divergence rather than sustained strength.
What to watch next
- The point of control (POC) at $12,573 on the BTC pair is a critical line in the sand. Umair projects that once the BTC pair breaks below this POC, both BTC and USDT pairs are likely to lose structure in tandem, producing a double-confirmation downside signal.
- Potential downside targets: an initial drop toward ~$77, with a deeper move to around $67 if selling intensifies.
- On the upside, a clean break and hold above $95 could rapidly lift SOL toward the $100–$105 zone.
Context
- The market’s reaction comes after the U.S. SEC classified SOL as a digital commodity on March 18. Despite that regulatory clarity, the fading RSI points to weakening momentum rather than a fresh influx of bullish conviction.
Bottom line
Traders should monitor volume and RSI behavior around the $92–$95 resistance and the ascending trendline for the next directional clue, while the $12,573 POC on the BTC pair and the $78–$75 demand zone remain key levels for downside risk.
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