Tom Lee told a Hong Kong audience that Ethereum’s recent weakness may have run its course, pointing to historical market parallels and on-chain cost-basis data that, in his view, signal a cyclical bottom.
Speaking at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong (March 13–14), the Fundstrat co-founder leaned on an analysis from Bitmine advisor and veteran market timer Tom DeMark. DeMark mapped Ethereum’s price action over the past few months against two major S&P 500 crashes — 1987 and 2011 — and found a striking resemblance. “According to him, there’s a 93% correlation to what Ethereum’s doing today to what the S&P did in 1987,” Lee said, calling the setup “unusually tight.”
What that mapping implies depends on which analog holds. If the 1987 pattern is the right comparison, Lee said ETH likely already bottomed on March 7; if the 2011 analog is the better fit, the market is bottoming now. Either way, his takeaway: “We think we’re at the bottom or exiting the crypto winter now.”
Lee didn’t rest his case on chart symmetry alone. He highlighted Ethereum’s realized price — an on-chain metric that estimates the average acquisition cost of coins based on their last on-chain movement — now at $2,241. By that measure, ETH is trading about 22% below the average holder’s cost basis. Lee compared that to prior turning points: a 39% discount at the 2022 lows and a roughly 21% discount ahead of last year’s recovery in 2025. “So we’re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher,” he said.
In short, Lee’s argument is that Ethereum doesn’t need an ideal macro backdrop or a new narrative to stabilize; it simply needs to revisit the level of holder pain that has historically coincided with exhaustion — and, by his read, that threshold has been reached.
Lee also used the stage to re-anchor ETH’s long-term story: over the past 10 years, he said, Ethereum has returned about 49,000% (roughly 490x), outperforming Bitcoin’s 11,000% and even beating high-flying tech names like Nvidia, which he put at about 65x over the same period.
Quick facts from Lee’s talk
- Tom DeMark (Bitmine) finds ~93% correlation between current ETH moves and the 1987 S&P crash; also parallels 2011.
- Ethereum realized price: $2,241.
- ETH trading roughly 22% below realized price (current discount similar to where 2025 reversal began).
- Long-term returns cited: Ethereum +49,000% (10 years); Bitcoin +11,000%; Nvidia +65x.
- At press time, ETH traded at $2,147.
Lee’s case combines chart analogs with on-chain-holder pain metrics to argue the selloff may be exhausted — a bullish spin that will likely keep traders and on-chain analysts debating whether the bottom is truly in.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
