Bitcoin’s climb back above $70,000 has buoyed hopes, but many analysts say it may be little more than a short-lived relief in a larger downtrend. One such voice is TradingView contributor HAMED_AZ, who argues that the technical picture for BTC remains decidedly bearish and that a deeper drawdown could still be coming.
Key technicals: descending channel and a failed support
HAMED points to a clear descending channel on the daily chart. Bitcoin’s drop below the roughly $79,000 support has, in his view, shifted the narrative: that former support has now turned into resistance, and bulls have not yet managed a meaningful retest. Crucially, this resistance band—roughly $79,000–$82,000—also sits near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, making it a structurally important zone to watch for the next major move.
Bear case: a sizeable correction possible
If BTC continues to struggle under the $79k–$82k supply zone, HAMED warns a fresh rejection could trigger a steep correction. He models a potential ~40% drop that would push prices below $50,000, with a potential bottom around $47,000—more than a 60% decline from all-time highs.
“As long as price remains below the supply zone and the upper boundary of the descending channel, the dominant scenario favors a bearish continuation after a pullback into resistance,” HAMED wrote, noting that signs of rejection or weakening bullish momentum in that zone would likely extend the broader downtrend.
Bull case: a breakout flips the outlook
There is a counter scenario: a decisive breakout above about $82,000. If bulls can clear that supply area and push toward the upper boundary of the channel, it could signal a trend reversal and hand momentum back to buyers.
What to watch
The $79k–$82k zone is now the key battleground. A sustained rejection there keeps the bears in control and opens the door to a deep correction; a clean break above it would be the first technical evidence the bulls are regaining control. Traders and investors should therefore watch price action and volume around that range for clues on Bitcoin’s next major direction.
Source: HAMED_AZ via TradingView.
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