XRP’s derivatives market just got a lot quieter — and that could matter for the next big move.
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that XRP’s open interest (OI) on Binance has plunged to roughly $453 million, the lowest level since late 2024 — a period that preceded last year’s roughly 600% surge in the token. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain highlighted the drop in a blog post, saying the decline marks a clear rebalancing in the derivatives market and a meaningful pullback in leverage usage.
Why this matters
- Open interest measures the number of active futures and perpetual contracts and is a proxy for leverage and speculative intensity. When OI is high, markets are more vulnerable to forced liquidations and violent swings; when it falls, speculative pressure eases.
- Arab Chain says the current OI pattern — a gradual decline followed by a sharp drop — looks like short-term speculators exiting, a shift that has dual implications: it can explain the lack of liquidity-driven breakouts and volatile price action in the near term, but it also reduces the risk of cascade liquidations and is a healthier structural setup. Low-OI periods, the analyst notes, often signal a transition from a frothy, leverage-driven market toward one supported by spot demand.
Context and recent history
- Earlier this year, XRP’s futures OI topped $1 billion several times, coinciding with strong price rallies. OI rose again in mid-2025 to similar levels and brought renewed volatility. The current environment, however, is “markedly different,” per CryptoQuant.
What traders and analysts are saying
- Some chart-focused analysts remain bullish. On X, analyst Niels pointed out that XRP appears to be forming a higher low — a pattern that preceded a new all-time high in April — and suggested a move above $2 would put bulls in control.
- Chart Nerd argued XRP is in the middle of an ABC reset and could launch an impulsive leg that takes prices significantly higher, even projecting a potential target near $4.50 in the first half of next year.
Price snapshot
- At the time of reporting, XRP was trading around $1.84 and was down on the day, per CoinMarketCap.
Bottom line
The collapse in open interest signals lower leverage and a less speculative derivatives market — a double-edged development that may mute short-term fireworks but also reduces systemic liquidation risk. For bulls, the quieter setup could be a healthier foundation for a sustained rally if spot demand picks up and key technical levels (like $2) are reclaimed.
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