After a string of missed 2025 price calls, the Bitcoin forecast for 2026 is less about single “price targets” and more about scenario ranges — mostly bullish, but with a long bearish tail that stretches as deep as $10,000.
A Wu Blockchain roundup published Dec. 29 argues that last year’s “collective miss” has dampened the market’s appetite for definitive targets. Still, banks, asset managers and industry executives continue to map out scenarios that could push Bitcoin higher or send it sharply lower over the next 12 months.
Big-picture center band: $150,000–$250,000
The midpoint of the debate sits in a familiar six-figure band — roughly $150,000 to $250,000 by end-2026 — a range backstopped by expectations of sustained institutional allocation and smoother spot-ETF channels.
Notable bullish calls and the logic behind them:
- Fundstrat: Tom Lee has repeatedly pointed to $200,000–$250,000 by end-2026, arguing that growing institutional allocation and improved plumbing (especially ETFs) can reshape cycle dynamics. Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell added a tactical caveat: he sees the possibility of a deeper pullback in early 2026 with BTC at $60,000–$65,000 (and ETH at $1,800–$2,000; SOL at $50–$75).
- Ripple: CEO Brad Garlinghouse told a Binance Blockchain Week panel he expects BTC at $180,000 by the end of 2026.
- JPMorgan: Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou’s team produced a volatility-adjusted BTC-to-gold relative valuation that implies a theoretical price near $170,000 — presented as a model-based upper reference rather than a strict year-end target.
- Standard Chartered: once more aggressive, it pared back expectations to about $100,000 by end-2025 and $150,000 in 2026, citing softer market drivers and reduced buying pressure.
- Bernstein and BSTR (Katherine Dowling): both see ~ $150,000 by end-2026, tying the thesis to clearer U.S. regulation, potential monetary easing (an end to QT and eventual rate cuts) and ongoing ETF penetration — with some banks already recommending small advisory allocations (roughly 1%–4%) to Bitcoin ETFs.
- Citi: with BTC around $88,000 in its note, the bank projected about $143,000 over the next 12 months (roughly 62% upside), anchored to expected ETF inflows and possible U.S. digital-asset legislation. Citi flagged $70,000 as a key support level and sketched a bearish case near $78,500 versus a bullish outcome at $189,000.
- Arthur Hayes: in an essay tying price to central bank balance-sheet activity, Hayes suggested BTC could push past roughly $124,000 and test about $200,000 in 2026 if global money creation accelerates.
- Asset managers: Grayscale expects a new all-time high in H1 2026 based on sustained institutional demand and clearer U.S. regulation. Bitwise’s outlook likewise leans bullish, arguing institutional adoption and regulatory progress could outweigh late-cycle pullback dynamics.
Bearish scenarios — multiple failure modes
The down-side map is fragmented: rather than one unified thesis, bearish views are framed as several failure modes — from cooling demand and weaker derivatives appetite to broken technical structures and macro liquidity tightening.
- CryptoQuant: argues demand growth may have slowed enough that Bitcoin could already be sliding into a bear phase, with a nearer-term move toward ~$70,000 and a deeper pullback to ~$56,000 if institutional demand and derivatives risk appetite wane.
- Peter Brandt: a veteran trader who focuses on technicals, Brandt warned that a parabolic structure has broken; based on historical cycle decay, he cited an ~80% drawdown from the ATH, which would point to about $25,000.
- Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence): the most extreme stress-case, McGlone warned BTC could collapse to roughly $10,000 in 2026 in a macro shift toward “post-inflation deflation,” tighter liquidity and a speculative-asset reset.
- Barclays and VanEck: neither set hard targets, but both described a muted 2026 absent new catalysts — more consolidation than breakout, with attention shifting to mining economics, stablecoin payments and second-order developments rather than headline price action.
What it all means
Taken together, the 2026 outlook reads less like consensus and more like a stress test. If ETF and institutional channels continue to compound and policy tailwinds materialize, six figures remain the modal forecast. But if demand stalls or macro liquidity tightens, the debate over $70,000, $56,000, $25,000 — or the remote $10,000 scenario — will be just as important for positioning.
At press time, BTC traded at $88,027.
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