2025 ended as a jittery year for both US stocks and crypto: periodic, healthy rallies were repeatedly offset by sharp capital outflows, leaving markets on edge. But a recent briefing from The Kobeissi Letter argues 2026 could mark a clear inflection—driven by tokenization, renewed blockchain experiments in finance, and several macro tailwinds that could lift risk assets, including crypto.
Key takeaways from The Kobeissi Letter’s outlook:
- Policy and politics: Former President Trump has publicly called for interest rates to be cut to 1% and has promised stimulus checks—moves that, if pursued, would be highly stimulative for markets.
- Fed dynamics: Quantitative tightening (QT) is coming to an end and a new Fed chair is expected next year—both shifts that could ease financial conditions and reduce a major headwind for equities and digital assets.
- AI investment boom: Corporate AI capital expenditure is accelerating; Kobeissi cites AI CapEx approaching $1 trillion per year, a force that’s already helping power tech-sector gains.
- Precious metals and deregulation: Metals are rallying and broad deregulation themes are playing out, adding further bullish momentum across markets.
- Retail and political cycle: Retail participation in capital markets is at record highs and midterm elections are on the horizon—factors that can amplify volatility but also increase liquidity and interest in alternative assets.
- Crypto’s place: With these dynamics, Kobeissi expects crypto to “rejoin the asset owner party,” as investors look beyond traditional equities and bond markets.
Market-size context underscoring US dominance
Kobeissi highlights the record scale of the US public equity market: total market capitalization has climbed to about $72 trillion—more than 3.5x the size of developed Europe, and over 3.5x China and Hong Kong combined. The Nasdaq has more than doubled in market cap since 2022 to roughly $38 trillion, while the NYSE has risen about $10 trillion to near $32 trillion. In short, the US market is at historic scale and is commanding a larger share of global capital than ever.
Why this matters for crypto readers
- Tokenization and blockchain experimentation are being taken more seriously by traditional finance; that could create new on-ramps and use cases for digital assets.
- Easier monetary and fiscal settings, heavier AI-driven capital flows, and elevated retail interest all create an environment where risk assets—including crypto—could see renewed inflows.
- Regulatory shifts and geopolitics (the US–China AI competition) will still shape outcomes; positioning and risk management remain crucial.
Bottom line: After a choppy 2025, The Kobeissi Letter paints a bullish 2026 for US markets—with policy changes, an AI investment wave, record market capitalization, and growing blockchain adoption all potentially converging to benefit crypto and broader risk assets. Investors should watch rate-policy signals, AI CapEx trends, tokenization developments, and retail flow dynamics as early indicators of how the year unfolds.
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