2025 ended as a roller-coaster for US stocks and crypto: sharp rallies were repeatedly followed by heavy outflows, leaving markets jittery. But according to a new update from The Kobeissi Letter, 2026 could be a very different story — one shaped by lower rates, booming AI investment, and accelerating tokenization.
Key takeaways from Kobeissi’s outlook
- Policy tailwinds: The newsletter highlights a high-profile political push — former President Trump has publicly called for interest rates to be cut to 1% and proposed new stimulus checks. Those kinds of rate moves and fiscal measures, if they materialize, would be highly market-supportive.
- AI and capex: AI capital expenditures are scaling rapidly — Kobeissi says AI CapEx is approaching $1 trillion per year, an expansion that could fuel sustained corporate investment and tech-sector strength.
- Precious metals and deregulation: Precious metals are trending higher, and broad deregulatory momentum is cited as another supportive factor for risk appetites.
- Macro and policy events to watch: Quantitative tightening (QT) appears to be ending, a new Fed chair is expected next year, and midterm election dynamics and record retail participation could all reshape flows into markets.
- Crypto’s comeback case: With those forces in play — looser policy, stronger risk-on flows and rising retail involvement — Kobeissi argues crypto could rejoin the broader “asset owner party” in 2026.
Market scale: US dominance on display
Kobeissi also underscored how large the US equity market has grown:
- Total US public equity market capitalization is now about $72 trillion.
- That’s more than 3.5 times the size of developed Europe’s market and over 3.5 times China plus Hong Kong combined.
- The Nasdaq’s market cap has more than doubled since 2022 to roughly $38 trillion, while the NYSE has added about $10 trillion to reach ~$32 trillion.
What this means for crypto readers
If Kobeissi’s thesis plays out — lower rates, massive AI capex, continued deregulation and record retail participation — risk assets including crypto could benefit from renewed capital flows. At the same time, policy shifts (Fed leadership, potential fiscal stimulus) and the evolving regulatory environment will be primary drivers to watch.
Bottom line: 2025’s volatility may give way to a more bullish 2026 backdrop, but the outcome depends on big macro and political variables. Crypto investors should monitor interest-rate policy, the Fed transition, AI-driven capex trends, and tokenization/regulatory developments when positioning for the year ahead.
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