XRP staged a modest bounce to $1.87 on Thursday as exchange-held balances slid to their lowest level since 2018, reinforcing a “tightening float” narrative — even as gains stalled below the stubborn $1.88–$2.00 resistance band.
Why this matters
- Exchange inventories have dropped to roughly 1.6 billion XRP, a decline of about 57% since October. That suggests more tokens are moving into longer-term custody or cold storage rather than sitting readily available to sell.
- Lower exchange supply can amplify rallies when buying returns, but it’s not a guarantee of sustained upside if sellers reappear at known technical ceilings.
Price action and participation
- XRP moved from $1.84 to $1.87 (+~1.7%), printing higher lows and staying inside a tight $0.05 range (about 2.5% intraday volatility).
- Importantly, volume picked up during the push higher — around 32 million XRP traded, roughly 50% above average — indicating the move had participation rather than being a thin-market drift.
- Still, the advance lost steam approaching the $1.88 area, a zone that lines up with the broader resistance before the psychological $2 handle. Past attempts to reclaim $2 have met quick selling, turning that band into a clear supply zone.
Market context and indicators
- Institutions are increasingly using structured, regulated rails for exposure while spot markets remain choppy, leaving assets like XRP supported by longer-term demand but vulnerable to short-term momentum shifts.
- Momentum signals are mixed: some oscillators show bullish divergence (momentum improving even without a breakout), but the market needs follow-through above resistance to validate a reversal.
- On the downside, intraday support held in the $1.82–$1.83 area from early-session tests, with a broader demand floor near $1.77.
What to watch next
- The ongoing drawdown in exchange-held XRP keeps the longer-term setup constructive, but traders want a decisive break and close above the $1.88–$2.00 band to confirm that the bulls have reclaimed control.
- Until that happens, expect a tug-of-war between the tightening supply backdrop and the well-defined resistance ceiling.
Key levels
- Immediate support: $1.82–$1.83
- Next clear demand: $1.77
- Resistance/supply zone: $1.88–$2.00
Bottom line: Reduced exchange inventories are a bullish structural factor for XRP, but the token’s near-term outlook hinges on cracking the $1.88–$2.00 barrier with convincing volume and follow-through.
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