XRP ticked higher on Friday but remains bottled up below the key $2 mark as exchange-held supply slides to multi-year lows.
Price and flow
- XRP rose about 1.7%, trading from $1.84 to a session high near $1.87. The move printed higher lows and unfolded in a tight $0.05 range (roughly 2.5% intraday volatility).
- Volume picked up during the advance — roughly 32 million XRP traded, about 50% above recent averages — suggesting the uptick had genuine participation rather than drifting on thin liquidity.
Why supply matters
- The amount of XRP held on exchanges has fallen to roughly 1.6 billion tokens, the lowest level since 2018 and down roughly 57% since October. That shift reinforces a “tightening float” narrative: more XRP appears to be moving into custody or longer-term storage instead of remaining immediately sellable on spot venues.
- In markets with shrinking exchange balances, price moves can be amplified when demand returns. But lower exchange supply isn’t a guaranteed catalyst — sellers often reappear at predictable technical ceilings.
Technical picture
- The $1.88–$2.00 band is a stubborn resistance zone. XRP repeatedly lost steam around $1.88, with the $2 psychological handle acting as the ultimate hurdle that has capped recent rebounds.
- On the downside, the short-term structure looks constructive as long as XRP holds the $1.82–$1.83 area from the session’s early tests, and more broadly the $1.77 level, which has acted as the next clear demand pocket.
- Momentum indicators are mixed: some oscillators show bullish divergence (momentum improving even without a decisive breakout), but the market still needs follow-through above $1.88–$2.00 to confirm a bullish shift.
Market context
- The inventory drawdown comes alongside selective positioning across major crypto assets. Institutions are increasingly using regulated and structured rails for exposure, while spot trading remains choppy. That dynamic leaves tokens like XRP with a supportive long-term bid but fragile short-term momentum.
Bottom line
- Falling exchange balances make the long-term case for upside more compelling by tightening available supply, but traders will be watching a clean break and hold above the $1.88–$2.00 resistance zone before the upside narrative can fully take control.
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