Dogecoin closed out the first week of 2026 parked on a cluster of well-watched support levels, and chart-focused analysts are split between two scenarios: is this the higher low that marks the start of a broader bottom, or merely a pause inside a larger corrective move?
Yearly picture: respect for a deep retracement
On the yearly chart, Cantonese Cat highlights a structurally important hold: DOGE spent 2025 respecting the 0.786 log Fibonacci support at roughly $0.10879 and printed an inside candle into year-end — a sign price stayed within the prior year’s range rather than breaking it. “DOGE ended 2025 holding 0.786 log fib as support, forming an inside candle, favors bullish continuation,” the analyst wrote. If that long-term hold continues, the next major upside reference on this mapped structure is the 1.0 fib near $0.73905 — not an imminent target, but a reminder of how much upside is technically open if higher-timeframe support holds.
Monthly focus: a precise defensive line
Matt Hughes (aka The Great Mattsby) zeroes in on the monthly chart and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.11778. Price is shown holding that level while carving what looks like a higher low — the market-structure signal many traders want to see before calling a bottom. “To me, this looks like the higher low needed to start the bottoming process, especially with price holding the 0.382 Fib retracement at 0.11778,” Mattsby wrote, calling the $0.11–$0.12 zone an attractive risk/reward area. If that monthly line breaks, lower references include the 0.236 retracement around $0.08433. On the upside, nearby prove-it levels would be $0.15428 (0.5) and $0.20210 (0.618).
Weekly view: watch the close and Bitcoin
Kevin (Kev_Capital_TA) brings the weekly timeframe into play, noting a “really nice weekly reversal demand candle within a major demand zone.” His thesis is time-sensitive: if that weekly candle is confirmed by Sunday’s close and traders can reclaim the 4‑hour 200 SMA/EMA on both DOGE and BTC, the low for this correctional phase could be in and a counter-trend move higher might follow. He’s also keeping an eye on Bitcoin in the $88k–$91k range as a broader market cue.
What traders should watch now
- Defend the $0.11–$0.12 area (monthly 0.382 at $0.11778 and the yearly 0.786 at ~$0.10879).
- Weekly close: confirmation or rejection of the reversal candle will swing short-term conviction.
- If $0.11778 fails on a monthly close, the bottoming narrative weakens fast; if it holds and nearby resistance levels are reclaimed, the charts argue for base-building over further erosion.
- Upside prove-it levels: $0.15428 and $0.20210. Downside reference below the key monthly floor: ~$0.08433.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.13242.
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