Bitcoin slips toward $63K as long-term holders keep offloading at a loss
Bitcoin was trading around $63,020 on Friday, down about 1.7% on the day and roughly 50% below its October peak of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. The market failed to hold $65,000 midweek and touched an intraday low of $62,640 — a move that pierced a "$64,500 put wall" tied to this week’s options expiry, removing a short-term technical support level identified by Tim Sun, senior researcher at Hashkey.
Why prices are softening
- Macro risk aversion: Investors across risk assets have pulled back as global stocks correct and deleveraging accelerates in semiconductor and AI-related sectors. That wider cooling in risk appetite is trimming crypto sentiment and institutional exposure to Bitcoin, Sun told Decrypt.
- Selling concentrated in the spot market: Derivatives markets show little leverage crowding, suggesting the pressure is coming from actual coin sales rather than forced liquidations, Sun said.
- Sensitivity to macro drivers: Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the drop “a broader bout of risk aversion rather than a deterioration in crypto-specific fundamentals,” noting Bitcoin’s growing sensitivity to rate expectations, geopolitics and short-term sentiment swings.
On-chain flows: long-term holders dominating the sell-side
Glassnode reports that more than 65% of coins moving into exchanges are long-term holders (LTHs) realizing losses — a pattern that mirrors past bear phases when multi-year holders dominated selling before eventually exhausting supply. Glassnode says that until that share compresses, “structural sell pressure from cycle-top buyers remains the dominant force in exchange flow.”
Sun sees the same trend on-chain: investors who held for one to two years are “gradually accepting losses and exiting,” capping recovery attempts even after encouraging U.S. inflation data.
ETF flows: a tentative return of buyers
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs showed a modest rebound after Monday’s $425 million outflow, taking in $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday, per Farside Investors. Those inflows represent only a marginal recovery and weren’t enough to lift the market, Sun said. Since launch in 2024 the ETFs have drawn roughly $51 billion in cumulative inflows.
Signs selling may be peaking — but not gone
There are early hints the worst of the LTH selling could be winding down. Sun noted that the “liquidation intensity of long-term holders may have begun to peak,” with on-chain realized losses starting to decline. Glassnode cited analyst CryptoVizart’s view that bear markets rarely find durable footing until one-to-two-year holders exhaust selling. Absent a larger external shock, Sun suggested the decline could be limited and that weakening sell pressure plus uncluttered leverage conditions may set up a “choppy bottom” for Bitcoin.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s dip to the low $60Ks is being driven more by broad market risk aversion and persistent selling from multi-year holders than by leveraged liquidations. ETF inflows have returned in a small way, and on-chain signs suggest heavy selling may be tapering — but as long as cycle-top buyers dominate exchange flows, downward pressure could persist.
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