Morgan Stanley leads a wave of bullish Wall Street coverage on SpaceX as the newly listed stock gears up to join the Nasdaq-100 — a move that could bring billions of passive buying and ripple across markets, including crypto.
Key takeaways
- Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Overweight rating; analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 base-case target and $600 bull-case target, citing Starship economics, Starlink expansion, and SpaceX’s role in space-based AI infrastructure.
- Goldman Sachs launched coverage with a Buy rating and a $205 price target, saying SpaceX is well-positioned across space, connectivity and AI — each with “multiple trillion-dollar” potential over 5+ years.
- Citigroup (Buy, $200), plus positive starts from UBS and Wells Fargo, round out growing institutional support for the newly listed SPCX.
- SpaceX is set to enter the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 after qualifying under updated rules that allow certain large newcomers into the index after just 15 trading days.
- JPMorgan estimates passive funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 will need to buy roughly $4.3 billion of SpaceX stock as the index is rebalanced, with buying expected around the July 6 close and the July 7 open. SpaceX’s index weight is expected to be below 1%.
Market reaction and microstructure
- Despite the bullish research, SpaceX shares pulled back: the stock closed Monday down 0.98% at $160.42 (weekly gain trimmed to ~2%). By early Tuesday afternoon it fell further, about 5.31% to $151.90.
- Derivatives showed cautious sentiment: SPCX USDC perpetuals on Hyperliquid traded roughly 3.15% lower at $159.17, with about $284 million in volume at the time of reporting.
Crypto context
- Crypto markets remained resilient alongside the SpaceX story. Bitcoin stayed above its 200-week moving average (around $62,865), trading near $63,300 after a 24-hour high of $64,597.
- Spot trading volumes were elevated — more than 70% higher — amid commentary from Grayscale suggesting that recent institutional Bitcoin sales could help define a market bottom.
Why this matters for crypto readers
SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion is a reminder of how index mechanics can drive large, automatic flows into specific stocks — and how those flows can affect derivatives, margin, and correlated risk assets. For crypto traders and institutions, big passive buying events and heightened volatility in correlated equity or derivative markets can influence liquidity and funding conditions across exchanges.
Bottom line: Major banks are bullish on SpaceX’s long-term prospects, citing Starship, Starlink and AI infrastructure as core growth drivers. But near-term price action shows profit-taking and caution ahead of the Nasdaq-100 rebalancing that could inject billions of passive demand into the stock.
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