Dogecoin is finishing the first week of 2026 sitting on a cluster of closely watched supports, and three chart-focused analysts are asking the same question: has DOGE made the higher low that begins a broader market bottom, or is this merely another pause inside a larger corrective move?
Yearly picture: structure over momentum
On the yearly timeframe, Cantonese Cat highlights a key structural outcome from 2025: DOGE respected the 0.786 log Fibonacci retracement near $0.10879 and printed an inside year candle into year-end. In his view, the significance is structural rather than momentum-based — price held a major retracement on a log scale and stayed inside the prior year’s range, which “favors bullish continuation.” That doesn’t imply an immediate rally; the next major reference on the yearly map is the 1.0 fib near $0.73905, a long-term upside that only becomes relevant if the 0.786 support holds on higher timeframes.
Monthly view: a precise hinge at $0.11778
Matt Hughes (The Great Mattsby) narrows the focus to the monthly chart and a single, critical level: the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.11778. Price is holding that line while carving what he calls a higher low — a necessary step to stop making lower lows and begin a bottoming process. He describes the roughly $0.11–$0.12 zone as an attractive risk/reward area if that monthly support holds.
If $0.11778 fails on a monthly close, Mattsby’s ladder points to lower support, including the 0.236 fib around $0.08433. On the upside, the nearby “prove-it” levels to confirm a base would be the 0.5 fib at $0.15428 and the 0.618 at $0.20210.
Weekly: watch the weekly close and BTC behavior
Kevin (Kev_Capital_TA) zooms in on the weekly timeframe. He’s spotting “a really nice weekly reversal demand candle within a major demand zone,” but his thesis is conditional and time-sensitive: confirm that weekly candle by the Sunday close, and reclaim the 4‑hour 200 SMA/EMA on both DOGE and Bitcoin, and you could have the low in for this correction and the start of a counter-trend move higher. He’s also watching Bitcoin’s price action closely — “all eyes on 88K–91K on BTC” — since BTC’s behavior will influence DOGE.
What traders should watch now
- Immediate defense: $0.11–$0.12 is the critical zone across timeframes.
- Monthly pivot: $0.11778 (0.382 fib). A monthly close beneath it weakens the bottoming case.
- Downside buffer: $0.08433 (0.236 fib) if broader support breaks.
- Proof of recovery: weekly confirmation, reclaiming the 4H 200 SMA/EMA, and moving past $0.15428–$0.20210 on higher timeframes.
At press time DOGE traded at $0.13242. The consensus from these chartists: the structure looks constructive if key supports hold, but confirmation is needed — a single close at a time — before declaring a sustainable bottom.
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