31,000 BTC options — roughly $1.9 billion notionally — expired on July 3, putting renewed focus on Bitcoin’s fragile push above $60,000.
What happened
- BTC: 31,000 contracts expired (notional ≈ $1.9B). Put-call ratio: 0.7. Maximum pain: $61,000.
- ETH: 135,000 contracts expired (notional ≈ $230M). Put-call ratio: 1.29. Maximum pain: $1,650.
Why it matters
The BTC block was large enough to test whether the recent recovery above $60,000 has legs. GreeksLive flagged that BTC gamma exposure is concentrated around $60,000 and ETH gamma sits near $1,700 — strike zones that can anchor short-term price action as dealers hedge.
Options flow signals were mixed. BTC’s overall put-call ratio was below 1 (more calls than puts), but GreeksLive also noted that BTC’s 25-delta skew remains deeply negative for short maturities — readings of -11.0% (1D), -11.0% (7D) and -8.0% (1M). That indicates short-dated puts are trading at a premium, and traders are paying up to hedge immediate downside risk rather than shifting longer-term bullishness. By contrast, Ether’s higher put-call ratio (1.29) pointed to stronger demand for downside protection in ETH than in BTC.
Market backdrop
Bitcoin’s modest rebound above $60K followed softer U.S. macro expectations and easing oil prices that helped risk assets recover. Still, selling pressure from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has been a drag — industry reports showed nearly $1.79 billion in weekly outflows, the largest withdrawal of 2026 — which kept buyers cautious.
This July 3 expiry was much smaller than last week’s end-of-quarter event, when roughly $11 billion in BTC and ETH options expired and concentrated hedging flows kept the $60K–$62K band in focus. Earlier June expiries also pointed to dealer exposure clustered around that $60K–$62K support zone; the new data suggests that level remains a key battleground even after the mild rally.
Wider view and liquidity
GreeksLive said the crypto market’s Q3 outlook is weak, with investor attention shifting toward U.S. equities, AI, semiconductors and tokenized stock products. The firm also warned that Bitcoin’s “long-term downtrend has not yet ended,” citing selling from large holders and ETFs. CoinGlass data showed total BTC options open interest fell after the big quarterly expiry — a reduction in open interest can thin market depth, even if hedging pressure persists because traders keep buying puts.
Bottom line
The July 3 options expiry underscored a cautious market: key strike levels around $60K (BTC) and $1.7K (ETH) remain focal points, short-dated downside protection is expensive, and ETF outflows continue to temper the recovery.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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