Bitcoin is trading in a “discount” band that could invite accumulation, according to AMBCrypto’s latest read of on-chain and market signals.
Quick snapshot
- Price action: BTC remains range-bound between $85,000 and $90,000 as the new year begins, signaling a stalemate between buyers and sellers. Over the past 24 hours it moved in a narrow band from $87,550 to $88,919.
- Leverage impact: About $31 million in Bitcoin contracts were liquidated in that window, highlighting sensitivity to leverage even in a tight range.
- Market cap and dominance: The total crypto market sits near $3.03 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for roughly 58–60% of that value.
Why analysts see a buying opportunity
AMBCrypto consolidated several technical and on-chain indicators that point toward lower downside risk and an increased chance of a rebound:
- Sharpe Ratio turned negative: CryptoQuant data shows the Sharpe Ratio — a measure of risk-adjusted returns — has declined into negative territory. While a falling Sharpe Ratio usually signals weaker risk-adjusted performance and greater uncertainty, Bitcoin’s history of high volatility can flip such readings into potential buying windows. Analyst Darkfost called the current phase a “favorable accumulation period,” noting that a negative Sharpe can indicate opportunity.
- Long-term holder behavior: Long-Term Holder Distribution Pressure is at -1.623, with only 221 BTC spent in the past day. That slowdown in distribution suggests long-term holders are selling less, a pattern that has historically coincided with accumulation phases and can support price floors.
- MVRV-Z on a 2-year rolling basis: The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV-Z) score — used to gauge whether BTC is under- or over-valued relative to investor cost basis — sits near one of its lowest points on a two-year view. Historically, similar readings have preceded recovery phases and market bottoms.
- Exchange reserves down: Available supply on centralized exchanges has dipped to about 2.5 million BTC, indicating less readily available sell-side liquidity. Lower exchange balances often reduce immediate selling pressure and can help stabilize price.
What this means for price action
Together, these indicators paint a picture of diminished selling pressure and an elevated likelihood of accumulation. If BTC reacts positively from current technical levels, that could spark a rebound and potentially force further short liquidations, amplifying upward momentum. That said, with the broader crypto market cap still the key driver of large moves, sustained and sharp upside is unlikely unless total market capitalization expands while Bitcoin maintains dominance.
Bottom line
Technicals and on-chain metrics suggest a lower-risk accumulation zone for Bitcoin right now — a setup that has historically preceded recoveries. However, leverage remains a wild card (as recent liquidations show), and broader market expansion will likely be required for a decisive breakout.
Disclaimer: AMBCrypto’s content is informational and not investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies is high-risk; do your own research before making any decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto
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