Headline: XRP steadies under $2 as exchange balances slump to eight‑year lows; January escrow unlock proves largely benign
XRP has quietly found a foothold below $2 even as on‑exchange supplies hit their lowest level since 2018. New blockchain analytics from Glassnode show roughly 1.6 billion XRP sitting on exchanges — about a 57% drop from October 2025 peaks — a shift that has materially eased immediate sell pressure and signaled a broader change in holder behavior.
What happened
- Exchange outflows accelerated in late 2025, with volatility compressing as XRP stabilized beneath the $2 mark. The pattern points to a move from exchange holdings into long‑term custody rather than panic selling.
- On Jan. 1, Ripple’s scheduled escrow unlock released 1 billion XRP (≈ $1.85 billion). Most of that issuance was re‑locked: roughly 700 million XRP returned to escrow quickly, leaving about 300 million tokens of net new supply.
- Historically, Ripple has re‑locked 60–80% of monthly releases, so these unlocks rarely translate into sustained selling unless behavior changes.
Why it matters
- Thin exchange liquidity reduces the intensity of flash sell‑offs, supporting downside resilience. At the same time, limited on‑exchange supply can cap explosive upside unless fresh demand arrives.
- The current structure bears resemblance to 2018, when constrained liquid supply preceded multi‑month rallies. However, a supply squeeze alone does not guarantee a rally: growth still requires spot demand, healthier crypto market appetite, and clearer regulatory signals.
Key variables to watch
- Spot buying and institutional flows (including ETF speculation)
- Growth in use cases such as On‑Demand Liquidity (ODL) or potential RLUSD expansions
- Emerging regulatory catalysts, notably the CLARITY Act
- Market risk factors: data quality debates, hidden exchange wallets, macro liquidity shifts, and Bitcoin’s direction
Recent market noise
Concerns briefly flared after a transaction memo suggested aggressive sales in 2026; the message was later revealed to be a community prank, not an official Ripple statement. Once clarified, the market quickly dismissed the scare.
Bottom line
XRP’s market structure today is defined by routine escrow mechanics, high re‑locks, falling exchange reserves, and sustained whale accumulation. That configuration reduces short‑term downside but leaves price dependent on incoming demand to spark meaningful rallies. With volatility likely to expand, the coming weeks could be pivotal for price direction.
Source: Glassnode; initial social reporting on X (formerly Twitter)
Disclaimer: AMBCrypto's content is informational and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk; do your own research. © 2026 AMBCrypto
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