Toncoin posts a short-lived pop, but on-chain data paints a cautious picture
Toncoin (TON) gained modest ground this week — up about 2% over the past 24 hours and roughly 12.5% across the last seven days — as market attention returned following Telegram’s rollout of a self-custodial wallet in the U.S. That product development, along with high-profile endorsement from SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci (who told Altcoin Daily he ranks TON among his top three picks for 2026 and revealed he bought at roughly $7.50), helped spark renewed interest. TON was trading around $1.72 at the time of writing. (Sources: TradingView, Altcoin Daily)
Technical catalyst and trader interest
A supply imbalance visible on the daily chart dating back to November acted as resistance through December. That zone was breached at the start of the new year, which attracted short-term traders and momentum flows. The breakout likely underpins the recent price lift, but technical momentum alone doesn’t fully resolve longer-term questions about demand.
On-chain metrics: mixed to weak signals
Deeper on-chain indicators temper the optimism:
- Open interest has been trending upward since October, but remains well below its August peak — indicating futures activity has yet to recover fully. (Santiment)
- Mean coin age hasn’t increased since October, suggesting there hasn’t been meaningful long-term accumulation; instead, coins have circulated frequently, implying periodic sell-offs or profit-taking.
- MVRV (market value to realized value) is rising but still negative, meaning holders who bought in the past three months are, on average, sitting on small unrealized losses.
- Weekly active users, after a late-2024 spike, have largely flattened over the past year, per Token Terminal and Santiment data — an indicator that network growth has cooled.
- Supply concentration shows small holders are doing most of the buying and holding, while larger cohorts are reducing exposure: the number of wallets holding 1,000+ TON has fallen.
Macro context: altcoins still playing catch-up
The broader altcoin market underperformed through much of 2025; Bitcoin dominated except for a mid-year (June–September) window. The increasing prominence of Bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasuries has also made it harder for altcoins to capture mainstream capital flows the way they did in prior cycles.
What this means for traders/investors
Taken together, the price breakout and a small wave of bullish sentiment (aided by product news and celebrity buying) could produce a short-term retracement toward resistance levels near $1.89 and $2.01 from current support around $1.70. However, weak accumulation metrics, falling large-holder balances, and stagnant active-user growth suggest limited conviction behind the move. For now, TON’s on-chain profile and price action do not present a compelling, risk-adjusted buy signal for longer-term investors.
Disclaimer
This article is informational and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading is high risk; do your own research before making decisions. (Sources: TradingView, Santiment, Token Terminal, Altcoin Daily) © 2026 AMBCrypto
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