CryptoQuant’s onchain data suggests the recent chatter about “whales” gobbling up Bitcoin is overblown — and much of what people are calling reaccumulation looks like internal exchange bookkeeping, not fresh buying.
What’s really happening
- Exchanges routinely consolidate funds from many small accounts into a smaller number of large wallets for operational or compliance reasons. That housekeeping can make a handful of addresses suddenly look enormous onchain, which in turn skews public whale-tracking metrics.
- Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, warns that once you strip out these exchange-related transfers, the balance held by genuine large holders is still falling. Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have declined — a pattern that matches outflows tied to spot BTC ETFs rather than a frenzy of whale buying.
Long-term holders have changed tack
- Not all cohorts are selling. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, says long-term holders have been net buyers over the past 30 days, reversing what had been their largest selling spree since 2019. That reduces one source of selling pressure, though it’s not a sure-fire signal of a sustained rally.
Market context — price, volume and ETFs
- Bitcoin has been hovering near the $90,000 mark in thin holiday trading. At the time of reporting BTC was about $89,750, roughly 2.8% below a day high of $90,250, with 24-hour volume near $52 billion. Market cap sits around $1.75 trillion based on a circulating supply close to 20 million BTC.
- Trading has produced sharp intraday moves but on low volume, which weakens the conviction behind breakouts or breakdowns.
- Since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024, the ownership landscape has shifted: ETFs now soak up a sizable share of on- and off-chain demand. ETF outflows appear to have helped drive the lower balances in the 100–1,000 BTC band even as some long-term holders quietly accumulate.
Bottom line
Taken together, the onchain signals point more to consolidation and bookkeeping effects than to a dramatic wave of whale reaccumulation. That said, the market isn’t one-sided: long-term holders have shown renewed buying interest while several large non-exchange addresses continue to trim positions. The next meaningful price move will likely hinge on whether ETF flows pick up again and whether trading volume returns to a level that can validate a breakout — up or down.
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