Crypto analyst Sherlock has sketched out a clear scenario for how a pullback in Bitcoin could unfold — and pointed to specific levels traders should watch if a slide toward $63,000 materializes.
What Sherlock is watching
- Short trigger near $80,000: Sherlock says traders should look for a short setup if BTC only reaches equal highs around ~$80k and then gets rejected.
- Caveat before May 5: if Bitcoin breaks above April’s high ($79,485) before May 5, don’t short immediately — wait for breakout buyers to chase the move.
- Prime short zone $84k–$85k: if BTC reclaims April’s high, Sherlock expects a short squeeze up to roughly $84k–$85k, which he calls the ideal place to initiate shorts.
- Potential timing and target: his chart and analysis suggest a crash toward about $63,000 could occur within roughly a month after BTC taps the $85,000 area.
Why he’s confident a crash is possible
Sherlock points to a historical May pattern: since 2020, Bitcoin has closed with a red monthly candle in May whenever it failed to overcome April’s high within the first five days of May. That pattern was broken last year when BTC cleared April’s high on May 1 and then rallied another 16.9% to a local peak of $111,980 by May 22 — which is also why Sherlock allows for an interim push to the mid-$80ks before any collapse.
A bullish counterpoint: Michaël van de Poppe
Not all analysts are bearish. Michaël van de Poppe argues BTC looks set for further upside:
- He notes the breakout above $79,000 as confirmation of an upward trend, while acknowledging intraday corrections remain possible.
- Van de Poppe sees room for rallies in stages — first $86k–$88k, with a higher probability of reaching $91k–$93k.
- He cites strong interest and flows into Bitcoin ETFs — over $1.6 billion since the start of the month — and says this supports a rotation from gold into Bitcoin.
Where price stands now
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $81,200, higher on the day, according to CoinMarketCap.
Takeaways for traders
- Watch the April high ($79,485) and the early-May breakout window closely — it helps define whether to anticipate further upside or prepare for shorts.
- If BTC stalls at equal highs near $80k and is rejected, a short could be considered; if it reclaims April’s high, look for a potential squeeze up to $84k–$85k before reassessing.
- Bulls point to ETF flows and recent breakouts as fuel for a push toward the low-to-mid $90ks; bears point to historical May weakness and a scenario that could take BTC down toward $63k after an $85k tap.
As always, these are scenario-based levels and not guarantees — volatility can be swift in either direction, so risk management is essential.
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