Galaxy Digital trims odds for CLARITY Act as Senate’s window for a vote narrows
Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 60% to 50%, saying the main obstacle is now time — not the bill’s substance. In a research note, Head of Research Alex Thorn pointed to a shrinking Senate calendar and the lack of public progress ahead of the August recess as reasons for the downgrade.
Why Galaxy cut the odds
- Negotiations have continued at staff level, but lawmakers have not released a merged Senate text or announced a debate schedule that usually precedes a floor vote. Thorn argued that private talks alone aren’t the same as clear legislative momentum.
- The Senate is adjourned until July 13, tightening the already brief window before the August recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune secured unanimous consent for the adjournment, leaving limited floor time for new business.
- Market sentiment has soured alongside Galaxy’s read: prediction market Polymarket currently places roughly a 41% chance the bill will be signed into law in 2026.
Political and scheduling headwinds
Competing priorities are crowding the calendar. President Trump linked his support for a bipartisan housing bill to passage of the SAVE Act, and lawmakers must also handle FISA reform and the National Defense Authorization Act. Thorn called the legislative calendar “the primary concern,” saying floor time is now the Senate’s scarcest resource.
Other flashpoints remain unresolved
Although Thorn stressed the downgrade is about scheduling rather than fundamental disagreements over the bill, several policy issues are still open:
- Ethics provisions continue to divide senators, despite a conflict-of-interest amendment being dropped in committee.
- Law enforcement groups have pressed for changes to developer protections in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, citing concerns about potential gaps (notably Section 604).
- The U.S. Department of Justice recently rejected those law-enforcement concerns, saying the CLARITY Act would not hinder prosecutors’ ability to investigate crimes involving digital assets, including terrorism financing, drug trafficking and human smuggling.
What could revive the bill’s chances
Galaxy lists three developments that could restore confidence: publication of a unified Senate text, resolution of outstanding policy disputes, and — most crucially — a leadership commitment to schedule a July floor vote. Thorn added that an announcement within roughly two weeks could push Galaxy’s odds back to 60% or higher, while continued silence into mid-July would likely trigger another downgrade.
Timing and next steps
Senator Cynthia Lummis has indicated the Senate expects to publish final CLARITY Act text around July 4 for public review, with floor consideration possible later in July. If the Senate amends the House-passed bill, both chambers would still need to reconcile differences before sending it to the president.
As the clock runs down, the CLARITY Act’s fate may come down to whether Senate leadership can carve out the scarce floor time needed to bring the legislation to a vote.
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