The crypto market’s 2025 rally unraveled in the back half of the year, leaving investors divided on what comes next for Bitcoin.
What happened to BTC
- Bitcoin surged to a record $126,080 in early October 2025, but has slid more than 31% since then, trading near $85,000 earlier today.
- The pullback has been accompanied by thinner spot trading volumes and signs that investors are reallocating into traditional safe-havens like silver and gold.
Two very different forecasts
- Bullish case — Grayscale (and Bernstein): In a new report, Grayscale argues Bitcoin may be shifting away from the familiar four-year cycle of peak-and-crash and instead following a five-year cadence. Under that thesis, Bitcoin could reach a fresh all-time high in 2026 — roughly five years after the 2021 peak. Grayscale also points to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and bipartisan progress on U.S. crypto legislation as key bullish catalysts for early 2026. Bernstein has reportedly made a similar observation about a potential 5-year cycle shift.
- Cautious case — Barclays: The bank warns that crypto could struggle through 2026. Barclays cites falling spot trading volumes and weak demand as reasons prices may remain under pressure, suggesting that investors are increasingly favoring less risky assets.
Why the divide matters
The sharply different views from two major financial players underline how dependent Bitcoin’s next move is on macro conditions and market sentiment. If rate cuts and clearer regulatory frameworks increase liquidity and risk appetite, the market could rebound. If demand stays muted and trading activity continues to decline, the current weakness may persist or deepen into another “crypto winter.”
What to watch next
- Federal Reserve policy and timing of rate cuts
- Progress on bipartisan crypto legislation in the U.S.
- Spot trading volumes and institutional flows into/out of BTC
- Price action in gold and silver as indicators of risk-off behavior
Bottom line: The path for Bitcoin in 2026 will likely hinge less on on-chain metrics alone and more on broader economic and regulatory developments — making it a year of high uncertainty for crypto markets.
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