TAO slips back into daily bearish structure as sellers press mid‑cycle drawdown
TAO pulled back sharply overnight, sliding roughly 5–8% in the last 24 hours and trading in the mid‑$200s (about $250–$265) across venues. That move has pushed the token negative year‑to‑date versus January’s open, though it remains several times higher than its 2023–early‑2024 base — so structurally it still sits in a higher regime than the last cycle.
A handful of analysts have framed the current zone as a “buy the dip” area, with one popular comparison likening buying TAO here to buying Bitcoin under $300. But the charts tell a more cautious story.
Technical picture
- Daily trend: Bearish. Price action shows sustained selling pressure and corrective candles beneath recent support.
- Momentum: Weakening. MACD has rolled back from its recovery phase into renewed downside bias, while RSI has drifted lower but is not yet in extreme oversold territory.
- Key levels: Immediate resistance sits at a short‑term ceiling that recently acted as support — a clean break above that could open a test of a higher supply zone. A convincing market‑structure flip requires clearing broader structural resistance to confirm buyers are regaining control.
- Support: A nearby cluster of bids represents the critical short‑term floor. If that zone fails, the technical outlook would deteriorate quickly and expose TAO to further declines.
Order‑book dynamics and flow
Order‑book data shows sizable bid walls below the market, suggesting some participants are willing to defend lower levels, while thick ask walls in the mid‑range point to heavy overhead supply. Clearing that supply would need meaningful momentum and higher volume.
What traders are doing
Market observers say long exposure is more appropriate as short‑term, tactical plays (fade‑the‑dump scalps) rather than trend‑following positions while the daily structure stays bearish. Short‑side or sell‑on‑rallies strategies remain aligned with the prevailing downtrend, though fast moves and bounces around support zones increase volatility and risk.
Takeaway
Short term (24h): Bearish. Momentum is down and price sits under recent local support — bullish positions here are tactical, not trend-driven.
Year‑to‑date / cycle view: Cautiously bullish. TAO still benefits from AI infrastructure narratives and halving‑driven scarcity and trades well above legacy ranges, but it’s in a mid‑cycle drawdown with clear downside risk if risk appetite for AI assets cools.
Watch for a decisive break above key resistance to signal a trend reversal, or a failure to hold the nearby support cluster for signs of deeper weakness.
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