Bitcoin’s “death cross” is back on the chat boards — and in client inboxes.
VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, said he’s been fielding questions after the 50-day moving average slipped below the 200-day — the classic “death cross.” His response on X was short and direct: “Lagging indicator,” accompanied by a table documenting every Bitcoin death cross since 2011. The broad takeaway: the signal tells you what’s already happened, not necessarily what’s next.
Key headline numbers from Sigel’s table
- 6‑month median return after a death cross: +30%
- 12‑month median return: +89%
- Positive hit rate (percent of times returns were positive): 64%
But the richer story comes from the market-regime context Sigel added. The same technical crossover has produced wildly different outcomes depending on where in the cycle it showed up:
- Bottoming regimes (washout-and-rebound):
- 2011 (“post-bubble bottom”): +357% over 12 months
- 2015 (“cycle bottom”): +82% at 6 months, +159% at 12 months
- 2020 (“Covid bottom”): +812% over 12 months
- 2023 (“cycle bottom”): +173% at 6 months, +121% at 12 months
- Structural bears (systemic deleveraging, weaker forward returns):
- 2014 (two instances): -48% and -56% over 12 months
- 2018: -35% over 12 months
- 2022: -52% over 12 months
- In-between regimes:
- 2019 (“late bear”): +9% at 6 months, +89% at 12 months
- 2021 (“late cycle”): +30% at 6 months, -43% at 12 months
- 2024 (“post-ETF regime”): +58% at 6 months, +94% at 12 months — a label that signals structural demand (ETFs) and different liquidity plumbing may change how signals play out.
What it means for traders and investors
- A death cross is not an automatic sell signal or a bullish omen — it’s a lagging confirmation of trend.
- Whether it marks a bottom, a fake-out, or a persistent downtrend depends on the underlying regime: capitulation and policy response tend to produce explosive rebounds; structural deleveraging tends to prolong losses.
- New structural factors — notably ETF flows and different liquidity mechanics — may make recent signals behave differently than in prior cycles.
At press time Bitcoin was trading around $86,631. The bottom line: pay attention to regime and fundamentals, not just moving averages.
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